Polysilicon
This week, the mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 38/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 36/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 34.5/KG.
Trading Activity:
Transaction activities remain sluggish, with buyers maintaining a wait-and-see approach. A short-term decline in market demand is unlikely to recover soon, causing downstream procurement and production to slow and become more cautious. As a result, trading volume for polysilicon has been tepid throughout the week.
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
Faced with inventory pressure, polysilicon producers are considering production cuts to ease the downward price pressure. Some mid-to-lower-tier manufacturers have halted operations for maintenance. Additionally, some new capacities originally scheduled to come online in Q2 are now showing signs of cancellation. With the average price of dense polysilicon returning to RMB 36/kg, new production would immediately face losses after being put into production.
Inventory:
Inventories have increased again on a weekly basis and have now surpassed the 300,000-ton threshold.
Price Trend:
Prices for all categories of N-type polysilicon declined this week. The average price for N-type dense polysilicon settled at RMB 36/kg, with some manufacturers offloading at slightly lower prices. Given the ongoing stockpiling trend among crystal pulling (ingot) manufacturers and continued price instability, there remains possibility for polysilicon suppliers to face with further downward prices.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 0.95/Pc, while G12 N-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.30/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.10/Pc.
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
Wafer prices have been declining for several weeks, forcing some manufacturers to adjust their utilization rates. However, these adjustments offer only limited relief compared to the decline in demand. Cell producers are now operating at a loss and are starting to push back with firmer expectations to get lower prices. Smaller manufacturers are panic-selling below market average, while larger manufacturers are trying to hold prices. Nonetheless, with current market conditions favoring buyers, price support is weakening.
Inventory:
Wafer inventory hovered around 20 GW this week. The share of 183N and 210RN wafers is relatively high. However, as downstream manufacturers are switching production lines and formats, demand pressure is higher for 183N wafers.
Price Trend:
Prices of N-type wafers of all sizes dropped week-over-week, with 183N leading the decline. Given downstream prices remain unstable, further drops in wafer prices cannot be ruled out.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.260/W. The price of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.260/W.
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
Cell manufacturers have started reducing production to support pricing. The supply-demand relation for 183mm cells is relatively tight, with quoted prices but few actual transactions. The 210mm market is more stable, though 210RN cells face pressure after a drop in demand from distributed PV projects.
Inventory:
Among the entire value chain, solar cell inventory pressure is the lightest. Inventory turnover days remain stable.
Price Trend:
Prices for N-type 183mm and 210R cells declined week-over-week, but the rate of decline narrowed. 183N cells still face price pressure due to both inventory and demand issues, with some manufacturers selling at RMB 0.01–0.02/W below the average. At present, given unstable upstream pricing and uncertain demand outlook, price stabilization remains difficult in this sector.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.68/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.84/W.
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
High-power module demand received a short-term boost from project deadlines, while low-power modules faced fiercer competition.
On the demand side: China: Distributed PV projects are on hold, and stocking for ground-mounted PV projects has yet to start.
Overseas: In Europe, module import prices are unstable, raising concerns among distributors about resale price impacts.
India has finalized anti-dumping duties on solar glass imports from certain countries, which may increase local module costs.
In the U.S., the proposed reduction of the IRA's residential ITC (25D) has been released but awaits congressional approval. If passed, it may stimulate residential PV installations in H2 2025. The impact on utility-scale PV projects is limited, which remain supported by a strong project pipeline.
Price Trend:
This week, prices for utility-scale PV projects in China for 182mm–210mm TOPCon modules remained stable, averaging RMB 0.69/W, while distributed PV system modules averaged RMB 0.67/W.
Bifacial M10-TOPCon modules from top-tier suppliers were quoted in the RMB 0.64–0.72/W range, with a downward shift in the price center. Bifacial G12-HJT modules were quoted in the RMB 0.68–0.76/W range.
Module manufacturers across the board have lowered prices. Unless upstream segments implement aggressive production curbs, price stabilization in module sector in Q2 seems unlikely due to the ongoing weak demand.
