Polysilicon
The quotations for polysilicon have slightly decreased this week, and the overall reduction of the polysilicon market has decelerated evidently. The volume of concluded transactions has not increased with the continuous decrement of polysilicon quotations from weeks ago, and the downstream sector remains cautious on procurement, where the majority of polysilicon businesses are no longer lowering prices blindly, thus the overall reduction has decelerated. The high-level quotation for mono polysilicon has slightly dropped, and the mainstream quotation is now at RMB 85-88/kg, with an average price of RMB 86/kg. The multi polysilicon market has been affected by the depleted end demand, and the weakened demand for downstream cells and wafers has transmitted to multi polysilicon, which is unable to maintain its high price, where the mainstream quotation for multi polysilicon has been lowered to RMB 55-60/kg this week, with an average price of 56/kg. The global polysilicon prices continue to drop marginally, and the average price has been adjusted to US$10.841/W alongside the decelerated decrease of mono and multi polysilicon quotations. Orders for December are expected to enter official negotiation next year, where prices may gradually improve then.
Two suppliers among 11 domestic operating polysilicon businesses are currently at the overhaul phase as the end of the month approaches, and the reduced production volume in polysilicon for the month was induced by the equipment maintenance and small-scale overhaul of 3 polysilicon businesses. The status of supply and demand for polysilicon is expected for a continuous optimization in early 2021 as businesses, such as GCL and Yongxiang, increase in production volume. Simultaneously, the expansion of the polysilicon market in 2020 is primarily guided by leading businesses of GCL-Poly, Tongwei, and Asia Silicon, and the Matthew effect becomes increasingly obvious as small and medium businesses continue to diminish on the total volume. With essentially no additional production capacity for polysilicon in the first half of 2021, the next round of production peak will be centralized on the period between the second half of 2021 and 2022, where the market share of leading domestic polysilicon businesses will ascend once again then.
Wafers
The quotations for wafers have slightly increased this week, where domestic and overseas prices for mono-Si wafers have escalated. Leading mono-Si wafer businesses have announced the list prices for December this week, which saw a minor increase in the quotations for G1 products, and stabilized quotations for M6 and above products, whereas the overseas quotations continue to rise in marginal degree due to the impact from the exchange rate. The previously weakened demand for G1 mono-Si wafer resulted in the downward adjustment in G1 wafer supply, where the supply and demand for M6 remains flourishing, though the end sector’s overall compelling demand for mono-Si wafers has led to the increasing difficulty for downstream procurement compared to several weeks ago, which prompted the bargaining power of G1. On the other hand, the new production capacity of wafers during the fourth quarter did not conform to the anticipation, which generated an inflation trend in M6 mono-Si wafers that are relatively tight in supply. In contrast to the stabilized status earlier, the domestic quotations for wafers have risen this week, where the domestic average prices for G1 and M6 are now at RMB 3.13/pc and 3.32/pc respectively. The demand for multi-Si wafers continues to be stagnant, and businesses are producing based on the obtained orders, with the average price maintained at RMB 1.45/pc. Looking at the existing quotations of the wafer market, the majority of businesses have yet to implement price adjustments apart from partial first-tier businesses that have followed the footsteps of leading wafer businesses in adjusting prices, though the relevant alteration may gradually appear next week.
Compared with the domestic robust quotations for mono-Si wafers, the overseas quotations for mono-Si wafers have been increasing marginally for two consecutive months, where the mainstream quotations for G1 and M6 have arrived at US$0.417-0.422/pc and US$0.431-0.436/pc respectively this week, with a respective average price of US$0.41/pc and US$0.435/pc. The prices of multi-Si wafers have been constantly loosening since the fourth quarter, and the sluggish end demand from overseas has forced multi-Si wafer businesses to remain on a low volume production, where the weakened price lingers at US$0.195/pc.
Cells
Having generally stabilized this week, the quotations of cells are exhibiting signs of elevation within the short term under the relatively strained supply of mono-Si G1 resources. The prices of multi-Si cells did not experience a large fluctuation this week, with the domestic and overseas average prices arriving at RMB 0.55/W and US$0.073/W. The demand for the supply of multi-Si cells can no longer be reflected on the prices, and the prices of cells are dependent on the quotations of wafers. Regarding mono-Si cells, the overall prices remain constant under the vigorous demand this quarter, as well as the stabilized wafer prices, where the average prices of G1 and M6 cells are maintained at RMB 0.83/W and RMB 0.92/W respectively. The provision of G1 resources has diminished profoundly on the market due to the partial migration of production capacity for G1 cells, and the growth in G1 orders is becoming evident as the downstream sector ascends preference in G1 products, where the quotations for partial recent sporadic orders are on the verge of rising.
The concern over the shortage of mono-Si cells persists, and that the market is deriving static regarding a negotiation on the demand for auxiliary materials in cells and modules prior to Chinese New Year in 2021, in order to avoid material shortage or inflation. On the other hand, as leading cell businesses adjust the quotations for December and reveal the pricing of large-scale products, the overall cell prices have gradually returned to the ideal range compared to the third quarter, and the supply of large-scale products has become the market focus.
Modules
There have been no apparent fluctuations in the quotations for modules this week, and the subsequent module quotations are expected to rise amidst the stabilized status as the overall market price continues to escalate. The module quotations for this week have continued from the trend of last week, where the quotation for the 325-335W/395-405W mono-Si PERC module is maintained at RMB 1.54-1.67/W, with an average price of RMB 1.57/W, and the quotation for the 355-365 / 425-435W mono-Si PERC module is now at RMB 1.64-1.72/W, with an average price of RMB 1.67/W. For the domestic market, the installation volume in October continued to rise, and there has been an apparent increase in projects between the end of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 for the delivery period of module tender and bids, which indicates that that the flourishing domestic demand in the fourth quarter will extend to early 2021. As for the overseas markets, the emerging market has received alleviation from the continuous fluctuations in the pandemic status for Europe and America, and that various regions are adhering to a stabilized policy orientation regarding clean energy including photovoltaic, thus the pandemic is expected to generate a large impact to the establishment of short-term projects than the demand of the subsequent market.
The prices of photovoltaic glass are gradually stabilized after a period of inflation, of which the 3.2mm glass is now at RMB 44-50/㎡, and the 2.0mm glass now sits at RMB 32-36/㎡. The module market is no longer tied up by having better equipped itself in the face of the recent glass shortage, and may experience further improvement with the possible announcement of pricing for December from glass businesses next week. Module makers are currently at the presentation phase, and have yet to initiate the negotiation for the orders of next month, where most first-tier businesses and glass businesses are going to announce the pricing for December next week. Judging by the market feedback, the overall pricing may continue to rise, and that the module market is likely to extend to the end of December under the impact from the cost of raw materials and the support derived from the demand in the fourth quarter.
