Polysilicon Price Dynamics: In the third quarter of 2024, the average price of N-type polysilicon was RMB 41,000 per ton, down RMB 6,000 from the previous quarter, representing a 12% decrease. Since the beginning of Q3, the pressure from price wars has eased as polysilicon prices hit the cash cost line of first-tier companies by the end of Q2. This led to reduced existing capacity and delayed commissioning of planned new capacity, causing a continued decline in polysilicon production. This supply-side contraction provided support for polysilicon prices in Q3.
Profitability and Future Outlook: Polysilicon prices remained largely stable in the third quarter, with occasional signs of minor weekly rebounds, indicating limited downside. However, as prices only stabilized without an upward turning point in Q3, the polysilicon sector remained unprofitable, with prices staying below the cash production costs for the entire industry, including first-tier companies.
Wafer Price Trends: In the third quarter of 2024, the average price of N-type wafers was RMB 0.13 per watt, a decrease of RMB 0.03, or 17%, compared to the previous quarter. Since Q3, wafer prices have tended to stabilize, although the average price for the quarter still showed a decline. The wafer segment entered cash loss territory earlier in the year, and overall production rates have since dropped, especially for TCL Zhonghuan, which significantly reduced its production rate in Q3. This reflects the abandonment of price war strategies by first-tier companies in favor of restoring profitability through price increases.
Profitability and Future Outlook: Wafer prices approached stability in Q3 but remained below the cash production costs for the entire industry, including first-tier companies. The supply side continued to contract by reducing production rates in Q3 and Q4, providing strong support for price stabilization. Future price fluctuations will depend largely on changes in demand.
Cell Price Analysis: In the third quarter of 2024, the average price of N-type cells was RMB 0.29 per watt, a decrease of RMB 0.06, or 18%, compared to the previous quarter. Cell prices have slightly declined overall since Q3, with a larger price drop than polysilicon and wafers but smaller than in the module segment. Production and inventory levels for cells remained relatively balanced, and the price drop was mainly due to price reductions in downstream modules.
Profitability and Future Outlook: The decline in N-type cell prices slowed in Q3, with the average price slightly below the cash production cost for first-tier companies. This marks the first quarter in which the cell segment entered cash loss territory. The supply side of the cell segment remains relatively balanced, and future prices will depend mainly on demand, particularly the demand and pricing strategies of the module segment.
Module Price Changes: In the third quarter of 2024, the average price of N-type modules was RMB 0.80 per watt, a decrease of RMB 0.10, or 11%, compared to the previous quarter. Although module production levels were relatively stable on a monthly basis in Q3, module prices continued to decline despite the stabilization of upstream raw material prices. This was mainly due to aggressive pricing strategies by module manufacturers in a slowing market, along with weaker-than-expected downstream demand during the peak season in September.
Profitability and Future Outlook: In Q3, module prices continued to fall despite upstream raw material prices approaching stability, leading to increased losses, marking the first quarter of cash losses in the module segment. Module prices in Q4 will largely depend on changes in demand, and there is currently no sign of an upward turning point in prices.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/YnyTuLQKf7W_CHJRx0u5ng
