Polysilicon
Polysilicon inventories currently remain above 570,000 metric tons, with supply-demand imbalances and oversupply pressures still substantial. Although domestic polysilicon output fell by approximately 20,000 metric tons month-on-month this month, supply continues to exceed downstream demand from ingot makers. As a result, the pace of inventory accumulation has slowed, but the overall inventory build-up trend remains unchanged.
Downstream ingot producers are continuing to adopt a demand-driven procurement strategy. Leading manufacturers are maintaining quotations for dense polysilicon above RMB 40/kg, while futures prices are significantly lower than spot market offers from producers. As the year-end approaches, some polysilicon manufacturers are facing mounting financial and inventory pressures. Combined with the impending seasonal downturn in downstream demand, this could prompt individual polysilicon producers to lower prices to facilitate sales. Overall, the polysilicon market faces the risk of nominal price stability masking underlying price concessions.
Wafers
Wafer inventories currently stand at approximately 27 GW. Overall supply remains relatively ample, while demand from downstream cell manufacturers provides insufficient support. The loose supply-demand balance has yet to improve. Under pressure from elevated inventories and subdued downstream procurement activity, wafer prices have generally remained weak but stable, although some manufacturers have already started offering products at lower prices to move inventory.
By wafer size, demand for 183 mm wafers remains relatively weak, with mainstream prices holding at around RMB 0.98/pc. Prices for 210R wafers have edged down, with mainstream quotations at approximately RMB 1.00/pc. Meanwhile, demand for 210N wafers is primarily supported by domestic utility-scale PV projects, keeping prices at around RMB 1.10/pc.
Overall, wafer prices remain caught between cost support and supply-demand pressures. If spot polysilicon prices remain elevated, wafer prices may find a degree of stability. However, if polysilicon producers fail to sustain their price support, wafers will remain vulnerable to weak, volatile trading and further downward pressure, although the scope for additional declines may be limited.
Cells
Solar cell inventories currently stand at approximately six to seven days of sales, with a slight downward trend, indicating easing shipment pressure overall. However, price performance varies considerably across different cell sizes.
For 183 mm products, weak supply and demand on both sides have put prices under downward pressure, with prices potentially falling to around RMB 0.28–0.29/W. In overseas markets, demand for high-efficiency 210R cells remains relatively strong, supported by demand from the Middle East and re-export orders through India. No signs of a slowdown have emerged so far, and prices remain firm. Nevertheless, the risk of slower procurement activity in the coming period warrants attention.
In the domestic market, demand from utility-scale PV projects is being released in the fourth quarter, with procurement of 210 mm cells gradually gaining momentum. The resulting tightening in supply-demand conditions has driven a further modest recovery in prices.
Looking ahead, solar cell prices will continue to face certain headwinds. On the one hand, any easing in upstream polysilicon prices could weaken cost support for solar cells. On the other hand, as market demand enters its seasonal low season, the supply-demand balance for solar cells may weaken again, putting prices under renewed pressure.
PV Modules
Domestic utility-scale PV projects are currently entering the final stages of installation ahead of year-end. Order deliveries for 210 mm modules have increased, while demand for products in other sizes remains relatively subdued. Downstream purchases are primarily driven by rigid demand and the fulfillment of previously awarded project orders. Overall market activity remains muted, with PV module prices continuing to trade within a weak but stable range. Actual transaction prices still allow some room for negotiation.
Leading manufacturers are currently quoting TOPCon modules at RMB 0.70–0.72/W, while second-tier manufacturers are maintaining quotations at around RMB 0.68/W. The overall market remains in a weak but stable position.
Looking ahead, PV module prices are likely to face downward pressure as winter approaches and demand gradually eases following the seasonal year-end installation rush. However, expectations for anti-involution policies are strengthening, while manufacturers are becoming increasingly focused on cost control. Against this backdrop, the industry's willingness to maintain price stability has strengthened. Market participants will therefore be closely monitoring the implementation of relevant policies and developments in polysilicon prices.
