Polysilicon
Polysilicon inventories continued to build this week, remaining above 560,000 metric tons, with the supply-demand imbalance yet to ease significantly. This week, an industry self-discipline meeting in Hangzhou pushed polysilicon producers to establish a unified minimum selling price. Combined with market expectations of production cuts totaling approximately 20,000 metric tons in October, this has strengthened expectations of price support.
However, current polysilicon production schedules remain slightly above downstream demand from ingot-pulling makers. While production cuts should help ease the supply-demand imbalance, they are unlikely to reverse the high-inventory situation in the short term.
Trading activity in the polysilicon market remained subdued this week. Nevertheless, some producers secured orders of a certain scale at prices above RMB 40/kg, providing support for market prices. As downstream ingot producers accelerate the consumption of their own inventories, the likelihood of polysilicon prices stabilizing has increased. A higher-price market environment is gradually taking shape, with more market participants expecting prices to hold steady.
Wafers
Wafer inventories currently stand at around 27 GW, edging up slightly from the previous period, while prices remain generally weak but stable. Wafer production schedules for October are slightly lower month on month. Meanwhile, elevated polysilicon prices have increased cost pressures on wafer manufacturers, strengthening their willingness to defend prices. However, from a supply-demand perspective, wafer supply remains relatively ample and inventories are still high, leaving prices without a solid foundation for a meaningful rebound.
On the one hand, wafer production cuts have been less substantial than those in the downstream cell segment, resulting in mismatched adjustment rates across the supply chain. The risk of further inventory accumulation therefore remains amid high stock levels. On the other hand, market demand provides limited support, while some wafer manufacturers are offering discounts to move volumes and traders are selling at lower prices, adding further downward pressure on the market.
In addition, price trends vary across wafer sizes due to differences in demand structures. Demand for 183 mm and 210R wafers is expected to remain under downward pressure in the latter half of the month, leaving prices relatively weak. By contrast, 210N wafers are benefiting from the release of demand from China's utility-scale solar projects, keeping prices relatively firm. Whether the high-price polysilicon market can be sustained will be a key factor shaping wafer prices going forward.
Cells
Cell inventories currently stand at approximately 7–8 days of sales and are trending down slightly, easing shipment pressure to some extent. Cell production schedules for October have declined significantly month on month, bringing a marginal improvement in supply-demand conditions and helping prices stabilize overall.
However, performance varies across product sizes. Some independent cell manufacturers have reduced production schedules for 183 mm products, tightening market supply and providing a degree of price support. Nevertheless, weak market demand continues to limit the potential for price increases.
In overseas markets, demand from the Middle East and India-related re-export trade continues to provide strong support for high-efficiency 210R cells. However, Indian export demand may decline sharply in the latter half of the month, exposing 210R cell prices to some downside risk.
By comparison, demand from China's utility-scale solar projects is expected to be gradually released in the fourth quarter, driving increased stocking demand for 210 mm cells. Combined with leading manufacturers' willingness to raise prices, this provides relatively strong near-term price support, and further price increases cannot be ruled out.
Modules
Entering the fourth quarter, construction activity for China's utility-scale solar projects has improved somewhat, with deliveries of 210 mm module orders increasing. Demand for other module sizes remains weak, while market activity is still largely driven by essential procurement needs and the fulfillment of previously awarded orders. Overall demand has yet to show a meaningful recovery.
Price negotiations in the module market have entered a phase of prices remaining stable on the surface while declining in practice. Following the holiday, leading manufacturers effectively lowered prices by RMB 0.01–0.03/W through undisclosed discounts. There is now a clear gap between quoted and actual transaction prices. First-tier TOPCon modules are quoted at RMB 0.70–0.72/W, while second-tier manufacturers quote below RMB 0.68/W. Some actual transactions have already fallen to RMB 0.65–0.69/W. However, spot-market trading volumes remain limited, and market distributors are largely adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Overall, weak demand and falling costs are placing module prices under dual pressure, leaving them with limited support and exposing them to further downside in the short term. Nevertheless, as expectations for China's anti-involution initiatives strengthen, manufacturers are placing greater emphasis on cost control and price stabilization. Market participants will be closely watching the implementation of relevant policies and developments in polysilicon prices.
