P-Type and N-Type Cell Prices Near Lows; Supply-Demand Dynamics Stabilize Across Segments

Polysilicon：

The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.

Market Update: This week, order deliveries have remained stable as ingot manufacturers begin negotiating contracts for August. However, the overall orders signing will gradually become clear by the end of the month. Current trends indicate that leading manufacturers, who are capturing more market share from smaller competitors, are outperforming mid-to-late tier manufacturers in securing orders.

Supply-Demand Dynamics: Maintenance and production reductions are steadily progressing among producers, while new capacities from leading manufacturers are continuously coming online, adding to the polysilicon supply. By the end of the month, net supply is expected to show a slight increase. The purchasing power of downstream ingot factories has not fully absorbed the monthly supply of polysilicon, causing inventories to rise slightly, with current levels around 230,000 to 240,000 tons.

Price Trend: This week, N-type polysilicon remains stable at 38 RMB/kg. Large manufacturers are clearly intent on holding prices firm, and some polysilicon producers are considering raising prices above the cash cost line. However, the realization of this expectation hinges on the clearance of polysilicon capacity. In the short term, all types of polysilicon are still bottoming out and consolidating.

Wafer:

The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.20/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.75/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.45/Pc.

Supply-Demand Dynamics: By the end of the month, the process of depleting wafer inventory has proceeded steadily, with stock levels falling below 3.8 billion pieces. This represents a significant reduction in inventory pressure compared to the previous month. On the supply side, wafer segment’s operating rates remain low, with overall wafer supply closely matching the demand from the cell segment. Despite ongoing cash flow losses in the wafer segment, nearly six months of sustained financial losses have gradually pushed mid-to-late tier manufacturers out of the market. Looking ahead to Q3, we may see further closures and market exits among these manufacturers.

Price Trend: This week, prices for wafers of all sizes have stabilized. With inventory pressure on wafer manufacturers easing and the Q2 earnings season concluded, manufacturers are refraining from selling wafers at reduced prices, opting instead to manage inventory depletion. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with potential for rebounds in Q4 as favorable conditions—such as capacity clearance, cell price recoveries, and demand improvements—materialize.

Cell:

The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.290/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.290/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.290/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.30/W.

Production and Inventory: By the end of the month, cell production remains stable and is in alignment with overall module production, avoiding any inventory pressure.

Price Trend: This week, cell prices have shown a clear trend of bottoming out. The price gap between P-type and N-type cells of all sizes is narrowing, with mainstream prices for P-type M10 and G12 at 0.29 RMB/W. Similarly, mainstream prices for N-type M10 and G12R are also at 0.29 RMB/W. The equal pricing of P-type and N-type cells will expedite the clearance of existing but non-upgraded P-type capacities, while N-type cells are expected to dominate the market in Q3 and Q4. Consequently, N-type cell prices are likely to rebound first once downstream production resumes.

Module:

The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.80/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.82/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.82/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.84/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.86/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 1.00/W.

Demand Outlook: Recently, demand from domestic ground-mounted power stations has shown signs of recovery, with the construction of some major projects gradually resuming. Additionally, previous orders are being steadily delivered. However, the outlook for overseas orders remains uncertain.
Production Outlook: In August, module production is expected to experience some fluctuations, as manufacturers seek to address order gaps and await a rebound in demand.

Price Trend: Prices for distributed solar modules have experienced slight fluctuations. Manufacturers with large-scale distributed PV operations may adopt price-cutting strategies to boost shipments, resulting in a decrease in overall distributed solar prices. Conversely, for ground-mounted power stations, leading manufacturers are strongly inclined to maintain stable pricing.