PV Weekly Update: Implementation of “Anti-Involution” Policies to Steer PV Price Trends

Polysilicon

Supply, Demand & Inventory:

Polysilicon inventories in the whole industry have now exceeded 410,000 tons, with a slight accumulation trend continuing this month. The overall trading activity remains sluggish, and new order volumes have declined compared with the previous month.

However, polysilicon prices have remained stable, mainly due to two factors:

Firstly, wafer producers are maintaining stable operating rates and still hold a significant amount of polysilicon inventory, keeping their regular procurement needs relatively steady.

Secondly, several polysilicon producers have been undergoing maintenance or partial production cuts, leaving limited volumes available for sale. As a result, few new orders have been signed recently, with only small quantities of guaranteed-supply contracts concluded. Shipment schedules have even been extended into November.

Price Trend:

As solar module prices in the PV market put increasing pressure on the upstream sectors, downstream buyers are finding it difficult to accept further price hikes. However, under the policy intervention of the ongoing anti-irrational price competition (“anti-involution”) measures, polysilicon prices are expected to remain high and stable throughout the month.

Wafers

Supply, Demand & Inventory:

Current wafer inventories stand at around 19 GW, showing little overall change. Structurally, 210RN wafers continue to dominate, but face mounting shipment pressure, with price levels trending downward. 183N wafers have seen a temporary pullback in its market demand, and some second- and third-tier wafer producers have been offering low-priced shipments.

210N wafers, on the other hand, are still seeing relatively strong demand, and their prices remain firm.

From a supply and demand perspective, the oversupply situation persists in the wafer segment, and with production still expanding this month, wafer supply pressure is intensifying. Meanwhile, downstream resistance to rising prices has grown stronger, and signs of production cuts from module and cell makers are emerging to push prices down.

Price Trend:

Wafer prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term, with an increasing risk of downward movement. However, according to the latest industry self-discipline meeting, a new round of cost-guidance pricing has been circulated, and many companies have expressed intentions to raise quotations. This has boosted market confidence, stabilizing — and in some cases reviving — price expectations that had previously been leaning downward.

Cells:

Supply, Demand, and Inventory:

Current cell inventory has increased to around seven days, showing a slight trend of going to pile up. This is mainly due to two factors: first, during the holiday period, cell shipments were relatively low; second, weak market demand led many module manufacturers to scale back production or take breaks, reducing external procurement of cells.

Specifically, overseas demand for 183N cells has declined, with growing wait-and-see sentiment. Demand for 210RN remains subdued, while 210N cells see relatively stronger domestic terminal demand.

Price Trend:

In the short term, 210RN cell prices are clearly under pressure, with the price center shifting downward. 183N prices are also weakening and face a risk of further correction. Although 210N cell supply has increased, its supply-demand balance remains relatively stable, providing noticeable price support.

With industry self-discipline meetings being held and production restriction policies expected to be implemented, prices may continue to face short-term downside risks due to cell oversupply. However, as the anti-irrational price competition policy continues to take effect, policy momentum may help stabilize or even lift cell prices further.

Modules:

Overall market demand for solar modules remains sluggish. Overseas solar installation demand has weakened temporarily, while installation demand in China is still mainly supported by utility-scale solar projects. Module manufacturers show different production schedules, with most companies taking production breaks or operating at reduced rates during the National Day holiday period.

Continuous upstream price increases have driven up downstream costs, but market demand for modules remains weak. Although module manufacturers have collectively raised quotations, with bidding prices moving above RMB 0.70/W, actual spot prices from leading players are still around RMB 0.68/W, showing limited upward momentum.

Going forward, the market will closely watch how effectively anti-irrational price competition measures are implemented, as these policies will continue to play a decisive role in shaping industry price trends.