High Inventory Suppresses Price Rebound Momentum; PV Supply Chain Prices Extend Bottom-Level Consolidation Across the Board

Polysilicon

Current polysilicon inventory is holding at the 520,000 mt level. Spot new-order transaction volumes have contracted, with market transactions dominated primarily by delivery of previously placed orders. Ongoing low price levels in the downstream wafer segment are squeezing ingot pullers’ costs, prompting a shift in procurement strategy toward strict raw material cost control. As a result, spot purchases of relatively higher-priced dense polysilicon and recharge polysilicon are being curtailed, with a portion of transactions migrating to the futures market. Cost-competitive granular silicon (FBR silicon) and mixed-grade polysilicon have emerged as the mainstream transaction products at present.

Looking ahead, polysilicon prices are currently in a bottom-level consolidation phase with the transaction price center holding steady. However, given the current supply-demand dynamics, there is no meaningful catalyst for a rebound in the near term. Key factors to monitor for future price direction include: the specific implementation of capacity guidance policies, marginal changes in market installation demand, and the actual execution progress of polysilicon producers’ output restriction and reduction measures.

 

Wafers

Current wafer inventory is holding at approximately 26 GW, with overall destocking progress remaining slow. Shipping pressure persists, and price centers for major wafer formats have stabilized near RMB 0.90/piece, RMB 1.00/piece, and RMB 1.20/piece respectively. Downstream market acceptance of premium-priced product is limited, and wait-and-see sentiment is prevalent. Currently, wafer producers are primarily operating with inventory reduction and shipping as their core strategy. Based on actual market solar installation demand and an assessment of downstream cell and module producers’ production plans, the wafer segment continues to face significant inventory absorption resistance in the near term, with existing stock difficult to turn over rapidly.

Looking ahead, the current oversupply fundamentals show no meaningful change; wafer market prices are expected to continue running under pressure at low levels, with no near-term catalyst supporting an upward price rebound.

 

Cells

Current cell inventory is holding at approximately 10 days of supply, with shipping pressure persisting. Recently, some cell manufacturers have shown a willingness to push prices higher, influenced by oscillating silver futures prices on the cost side and a phased release of domestic solar projects demand for 210-size cells. However, downstream spot market acceptance of higher-priced product remains limited, and the actual transaction price center continues to hold steady. The core contradiction in this segment remains the supply-demand mismatch among elevated inventory, recovering production scheduling, and relatively weak market demand.

Looking ahead, absent a meaningful increase in demand and without a substantive upward move in silver auxiliary material prices, cell prices will lack the near-term catalyst for a rebound. The subsequent trajectory is expected to be one of weak stability at the bottom.

 

PV Modules

As domestic downstream utility-scale (ground-mount) PV projects gradually begin to ramp up, the industry’s margin expectations for the May market have shown some improvement, and most module producers have accordingly raised their production schedules. However, market procurement continues to favor lower-priced product, with market orders concentrated on domestic large-format module types. Constrained by this dynamic, the module segment’s overall bargaining power has not improved, and price floor support remains weak.

Looking ahead, genuine incremental market demand remains limited, and the continued downward pressure from low winning-bid prices on utility-scale solar PV projects means the supply-demand tug-of-war leaves module prices without upward momentum in the near term. In conclusion, the overall subsequent trajectory is expected to continue in a state of bottom-level pressure.