PV Industry Price Surge Across the Supply Chain, Market Sentiment Turns Bullish

Polysilicon

The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 41/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 40/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.

• Transaction Dynamics: This week, polysilicon manufacturers have been actively signing new orders. Encouraged by improved downstream demand, more producers have raised their price quotes, and actual transaction volumes have increased accordingly.

• Inventory Dynamics: Current polysilicon inventory levels are estimated at around 260,000-280,000 tons. Following the recent surge in installation demand, polysilicon manufacturers intend to maintain high operating rates to accelerate inventory reduction.

• Supply-Side Trends: In March, polysilicon supply is estimated at 98,000–99,000 tons, reflecting a 7.1% month-over-month increase. Excluding the impact of additional production days, operating rates have remained relatively controlled. The top five manufacturers are still regulating output through selective facility maintenance and temporary shutdowns to maintain supply-side discipline. On the demand side, wafer manufacturers have also been conservative in their production schedules. However, the supply-demand balance remains favorable, providing solid support for polysilicon this month.

• Price Trends: Prices for N-type recharge and dense polysilicon have risen this week, reaching RMB 41/kg and RMB 40/kg, respectively. With the seasonal peak for PV installations approaching and futures warehouse registrations diverting supply, polysilicon inventory is expected to decline rapidly to healthy levels. This could drive further price increases in Q2. At the same time, polysilicon manufacturers are likely to maintain a disciplined production strategy, aiming to restore prices and profit margins in the second half of 2025. During this recovery phase, the stability of industry alliances will be critical.

Wafers

The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.18/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.55/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.35/Pc.

• Supply and Demand Trends: In March, wafer production increased slightly to 50–51 GW. While leading specialized manufacturers have maintained a cautious production strategy, some Tier-1 producers have recently loosened their output constraints, continuing their previous high-production approach. This introduces new uncertainties regarding the effectiveness of industry self-regulation.
On the demand side, driven by a minor installation boom, market demand for cells has been stronger. However, the demand structure has shifted, with growth concentrated in the 210RN wafer segment, leading to significant price momentum for this specification.

• Price Trends: Prices for 210RN wafers have continued to rise this week, now reaching 1.35 yuan per piece. As installation demand remains strong, price support for cells remains robust.

Cells

The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.330/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.270/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.295/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.295/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.310/W.

• Supply and Demand Trends: On the supply side, solar cell production for March increased 22% month-over-month, driven by a Q2 installation surge, with total production reaching 54–55 GW.
On the demand side, module manufacturers are experiencing a phase of accelerated installation, shifting back into a volume- and price-uptrend. Demand for 210RN cells has surged, as both distributed PV and utility-scale PV projects have increasingly adopted this specification, making it the leading price performer.

• Price Trends: Prices for all N-type cell specifications rose across the board this week, marking the first instance where price increases were demand-driven rather than merely a response to supply constraints. Notably, top-tier manufacturers’ 210RN cell prices are now RMB 0.02–0.03/W higher than the market average, with mainstream transaction prices stabilizing at RMB0.31/W.

Modules

The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.69/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.70/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.70/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.71/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.86/W.      

• Supply-Side Trends: Module production for March reached 55–56 GW, reflecting a 30–31% month-over-month increase. The top 10 module manufacturers contributed approximately 67% of this incremental growth.

• Demand-Side Trends: （1）Domestic Market: Large-scale ground-mounted PV projects are still in the planning phase, while distributed solar installations are experiencing a short-term boom, driven by new policies affecting project profitability.（2）Overseas Market: In Europe, module prices have rebounded, with distributors and installers restocking inventory.  In India, imported solar cell prices have increased, and local supply remains constrained, leading to upward pressure on module prices.

• Price Trends: Prices for 182–210mm TOPCon modules in China have rebounded sharply, with utility-scale solar project module prices returning to RMB 0.69/W and distributed solar project module prices rising to RMB 0.71/W. Additional trends:
Bifacial M10-TOPCon: Top-tier manufacturers’ price quotes range between RMB 0.66–0.76/W, and  bifacial G12-HJT: Mainstream manufacturers’ price quotes cluster between RMB 0.69–0.78/W.

Recently, module prices have been on a consistent uptrend. Initially, manufacturers tested the waters with small price hikes of RMB 0.01–0.02/W, but market optimism has since led to larger price increases. Currently, high-power TOPCon modules are widely quoted between RMB 0.70–0.75/W, solidifying a strong bullish sentiment in the market.