Oversupply Pattern Remains Difficult to Reverse; Production Cuts Are the Only Way to Halt Price Declines Across the PV Supply Chain

Polysilicon

Current polysilicon inventory remains elevated at around 520,000 metric tons, with manufacturers still facing heavy inventory and cash flow pressure. Ahead of the SNEC exhibition, market wait-and-see sentiment has intensified, while bargaining between upstream and downstream players continues to deepen. Newly signed orders remain extremely limited. Downstream wafer prices continue to hover at low levels, placing ingot manufacturers under severe cost pressure. As a result, buyers show limited willingness to procure relatively higher-priced dense polysilicon and recharged polysilicon, with actual transactions mainly concentrated in more cost-competitive granular silicon and blended materials. Transaction prices have therefore remained relatively stable. From a supply-demand perspective, leading producers are expected to resume some production in June, potentially increasing overall supply further. However, downstream demand has yet to show any meaningful improvement in the short term, and the supply-demand imbalance continues to limit any momentum for a polysilicon price rebound.

Looking ahead, market trends will largely depend on the implementation progress of coordinated production controls and output cuts among leading manufacturers, the shutdown and market exit pace of second- and third-tier producers, and the extent of any substantive recovery in market installation demand.

 

Wafers

Wafer inventories currently remain high at around 26 GW, while manufacturers continue to face pressure in both shipments and inventory reduction. Spot prices are still hovering near low levels of RMB 0.9/1.0/1.2 per piece, and some manufacturers are frequently dumping products at discounted prices in order to accelerate cash recovery. Downstream buyers generally show weak acceptance of high-priced products, while market sentiment remains cautious. Given concerns over further price declines, the prevailing strategy remains focused on inventory reduction and shipment acceleration. From the perspective of market demand and production scheduling across the supply chain, overall cell operating rates are consuming wafers at a relatively limited pace.

In the short term, wafer inventory destocking continues to face considerable resistance, making it difficult for existing inventories to turn over quickly. The industry’s oversupply situation is unlikely to reverse anytime soon. Wafer prices are therefore expected to remain under pressure at low levels, with limited fundamental support for a rebound. Future market direction will still depend largely on the progress of coordinated production cuts among major manufacturers.

 

Cells

At present, domestic solar cell inventory remains at around 10 days, while shipment pressure persists. Affected by repeated fluctuations in silver futures prices, some domestic market projects have recently released concentrated demand for 210 mm format products. Although cell manufacturers previously attempted to raise quotations, downstream acceptance of higher-priced products has remained extremely weak, leading to stalled transactions and forcing prices to remain only barely stable. In the short term, the industry’s core contradiction remains the triple mismatch of high inventories, high operating rates, and weak demand. Without cost support from rising silver prices, solar cell prices may reverse downward and fall into sluggish sales conditions. Looking ahead, some manufacturers may be forced to extend payment terms in order to stimulate shipments. However, such capital-intensive practices are difficult to sustain during a downcycle. As market difficulties intensify, cell manufacturers are expected to face the risk of OEM order gaps, while traders will likely begin offloading inventory aggressively to avoid further price declines.

Overall, solar cell prices are expected to remain weak but relatively stable in the near term, while still facing the risk of accelerated downside pressure.

 

PV Modules

Current market procurement strategies remain generally conservative, with buyers still prioritizing low-priced products. Demand is mainly concentrated in orders for large-format modules used in domestic utility-scale solar projects. Under such conditions, pricing power across the supply chain remains severely constrained, and mainstream module prices have now generally fallen to around RMB 0.72–0.75/W, with weak support at the price floor. At the same time, market demand remains sluggish. Combined with aggressive low-price bidding in domestic utility-scale projects, the profit margins of module manufacturers have been severely compressed.

Looking ahead, in the absence of any substantial positive catalysts, module prices are expected to remain under downward pressure in the short term, with the market likely to continue fluctuating under overall weak conditions.