G12RN Wafer Prices Decline; Cell and Module Manufacturers Plan Early Holidays

Polysilicon

The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 37/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 35/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 40/KG.

Inventory Dynamics:As of early this month, the polysilicon inventory stands at approximately 350,000 tons, with producers holding around 300,000 tons. Inventory is mainly concentrated among leading companies, with an estimated CR3 ratio exceeding 60%. In December, due to significant production cuts in the polysilicon segment, inventory levels are expected to peak.

Supply Dynamics: On the supply side, polysilicon output for December is estimated to be in the range of 95,000 to 100,000 tons, a significant month-on-month decline of approximately 23%. This is primarily due to leading manufacturers shutting down production capacity in southwestern regions during the dry season as hydropower costs rise. Industry-wide capacity utilization has been adjusted downward to 30%-35%, reflecting another decline compared to last month.

On the demand side, the wafer segment remains in an inventory-clearing phase and ingot manufacturers also reduce their production during the month. This results in limited demand for polysilicon. Additionally, with the year-end approaching, expectations for early holidays among downstream manufacturers are growing. To avoid excessive stockpiling, wafer manufacturers are displaying lukewarm purchasing sentiment for polysilicon.

Price Trends: Polysilicon prices have remained stable domestically this week. The substantial reduction in December production has brought the supply-demand ratio down to 0.9-1.0, suggesting that inventory levels are nearing their peak. However, further production cuts or shutdowns will be required to meaningfully reduce inventories. Entering Q1 2025, a traditionally weak season, polysilicon prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase amid subdued downstream demand.

Wafers

The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.03/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.38/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.12/Pc.

Inventory Dynamics: Inventory clearance for wafers is progressing well. With high production levels in the downstream cell segment and continued low utilization rates in the wafer segment, the inventory of external sales wafers has fallen below 3 billion pieces. By specification, demand for 183X wafers remains strong, with previously accumulated inventory being steadily cleared. However, due to misalignments in production and delivery schedules, inventory for 210RN wafers has risen rapidly, facing renewed price pressure this week.

Supply and Demand Relationship: This month’s wafer output has been revised downward to 43-44 GW, with capacity utilization dropping by 2 percentage points month-on-month to 44%-46%. The negative margin between wafer and cell prices has widened again, suggesting that inventory levels will continue to decline through this month, potentially returning to healthy levels by late Q1 2025. However, it remains to be seen whether production reductions can be sustainable amid competing interests, as one specialized manufacturer has already increased production against the trend.

Price Trends: During the week, prices for 210mm N-type and 210R wafers declined further, while other specifications remained stable. As the industry approaches the Chinese New Year holiday season, with waning downstream demand, the rebound potential for 183X wafers appears limited.

Cells

The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.270/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.270/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.265/W.

Supply and Demand Dynamics: Solar cell inventories remain low, with specialized manufacturers holding approximately 5-6 GW of stock, down further compared to last month. On the supply side, cell output is estimated at 52-53 GW, roughly unchanged month-on-month. On the demand side, module manufacturers are broadly scaling back production in December, with some planning for early holidays as the off-season approaches. Although the current supply-demand relationship is relatively balanced, production adjustments cannot be ruled out next month.

Price Trends: This week, prices for all cell specifications held steady. However, G12R cells are under dual pressure from upstream wafer price declines and rising inventory levels, raising the risk of price adjustments in the near term.

Modules

The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.69/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.70/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.70/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.71/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.86/W.

Supply and Demand Relationship: December module production has been revised downward by mid-single digits month-on-month to 44-45 GW. Following the completion of deliveries for large-scale power plants, manufacturers have broadly reduced production plans. As Q1 2025 looms, many expect an even weaker off-season, with plans for extended holidays becoming more common.

Domestically, demand from centralized solar projects is tapering off, leading to weaker procurement. Overseas, as December ends, there is uncertainty regarding U.S. customs policies. If retroactive anti-dumping and countervailing duties are enforced on inventory modules previously exempted, there is a possibility that these modules could be shipped back to their origins.

Price Trends: Module prices remained stable this week. Bifacial M10-TOPCon: Leading manufacturers’ quotes range from 0.63-0.70 RMB/W. Bifacial G12-HJT: Mainstream quotes cluster around 0.65-0.80 RMB/W.

Recent bidding data indicates a slight upward trend in November’s tender price averages, supported by voluntary price control measures and association-defined cost norms. Leading manufacturers appear to be adhering to agreements, with quotes generally hovering around 0.68 RMB/W. However, some distributors are starting year-end clearance sales, cutting prices by 0.02-0.04 RMB/W.