Polysilicon
Polysilicon inventories currently remain at approximately 520,000 metric tons, with further inventory accumulation expected this month, exacerbating the industry’s supply-demand imbalance.
Weak market demand and elevated downstream inventories continue to weigh on procurement activity. Ingot manufacturers are primarily consuming their existing feedstock inventories, while purchasing interest remains subdued, leaving market transactions nearly at a standstill this week. Specifically, ample raw material inventories at ingot producers continue to suppress new procurement demand. Meanwhile, supply-demand conditions are expected to weaken further this month, with elevated inventory levels unlikely to be absorbed in the near term.
Although recently introduced module efficiency policies have provided some support to market sentiment, they are unlikely to materially alter the weak supply-demand relations in the short term. Going forward, market participants should closely monitor the recovery of market demand and the implementation of relevant policy measures.
Wafers
Wafer inventories currently stand at approximately 28 GW, remaining broadly unchanged from the previous period, while the pace of inventory destocking continues to be slow.
Although wafer production was reduced in July, structural oversupply persists, shipment pressure remains elevated, and prices continue to trend lower. To accelerate sales, second- and third-tier manufacturers continue to offer discounts of approximately RMB 0.02–0.03 per wafer relative to quotations from leading producers.
At the same time, weaker polysilicon prices have further eroded cost support, while production cuts in the downstream cell segment have reduced wafer demand. As a result, the supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to improve in the short term, and wafer prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate near current levels.
Cells
Cell inventories remain at approximately 12 days of production, and shipment pressure persists across the market. Mainstream transaction prices have fallen to around RMB 0.26/W, while large-volume orders continue to allow some room for price negotiation. However, the pace of price declines has narrowed noticeably, suggesting that the market is gradually entering a bottoming phase.
Oversupply remains the primary factor weighing on prices, with 210R cells facing particularly heavy inventory pressure. By contrast, 183 mm cells have seen a modest price recovery, supported by stronger overseas demand.
Meanwhile, continued production cuts by several specialized cell manufacturers have begun to ease supply pressure and provide some support for market pricing. In the near term, cell prices are expected to remain range-bound at low levels.
PV Modules
The module market remains in a downward cycle, with the recovery in market demand continuing to fall short of expectations. Procurement activity is still largely driven by essential inventory replenishment and the delivery of previously awarded project orders.
As upstream cell prices continue to decline, cost support for modules has weakened further, intensifying price competition across the industry. Leading manufacturers are currently quoting RMB 0.66–0.68/W for standard modules, while second- and third-tier suppliers are generally offering RMB 0.65–0.67/W. Some lower-efficiency inventory products continue to be cleared through aggressive discounting.
Overall, downstream buyers remain cautious, transaction activity is relatively slow, and module prices are expected to stay under pressure in the near term. Going forward, the market will closely monitor the pace of market demand recovery and progress in industry-wide inventory destocking.
