Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for N-type mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 40/KG, while N- type mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 38/KG and N-type granular silicon is currently priced at RMB 35/KG.
Supply Dynamics:
Leading polysilicon manufacturers are continuing to implement production reduction strategies, with monthly output decreasing by approximately 4.5% to 5.0%, resulting in a total output of 44-46 GW. The production cut self-regulation agreement has taken effect, and the listing of polysilicon futures is further leading polysilicon inventory to flow toward downstream players and traders. On the demand side, the ingot segment continues to reduce monthly production, marking a crucial phase for inventory reduction.
Trading Status:
With the holiday season approaching, polysilicon transaction volumes remain low. Orders mainly come from major manufacturers, but due to prior stockpiling of low-priced polysilicon by ingot factories, their willingness to accept higher-priced orders is relatively low.
Price Trends:
This week, domestic polysilicon prices remained stable. As overall market activity cools approaching the holiday, polysilicon prices are expected to hold steady.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.15/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.50/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.25/Pc .
Inventory Dynamics:
Wafer inventory reduction has been progressing well. A combination of high production levels in downstream cell manufacturing and low operational rates for wafer production has pushed N-type wafer inventories down to 1.6-1.8 billion pieces, providing rigid support for price increases in certain sizes.
Supply and Demand Dynamics:
Monthly output decreased slightly, landing in the 42-43 GW range, roughly aligned with cell production levels. Cell manufacturers are currently stocking up on low-cost wafers, indicating that there will be more room for inventory reduction in the wafer segment. Consequently, the supply-demand balance for wafers is gradually improving, with prices reflecting this trend.
Price Trends:
N-type wafer prices rose across all specifications this week. In January, low production plans and ongoing inventory reduction will provide strong price support. However, with the holiday season approaching, price increases may be limited.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.270/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.270/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.290/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.290/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.270/W.
Supply and Demand Dynamics:
In January, solar cell production plans were significantly revised downward, with monthly output dropping by about 16% to 17% to align with module production, settling at 44-45 GW. Major manufacturers are defending prices by cutting production sharply. On the demand side, visibility for module orders has declined, with most manufacturers planning production cuts and preparing for holidays in the latter half of the month. This has kept solar cell supply and demand largely balanced, with stronger cost-side pressures. Therefore, module manufacturers have generally accepted price increases for stockpiling, but the momentum for further price rises may weaken as the holiday nears.
Price Trends:
Prices for all N-type solar cell specifications increased this week. Higher solar cell prices have driven up module costs, and if module prices cannot absorb the increases, the upward trend in cell prices may be difficult to sustain.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.69/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.70/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.70/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.71/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.86/W.
Supply Dynamics:
Module production plans for January have been significantly reduced by around 15%, to 40-41 GW. Most manufacturers will suspend production later in the month, gradually scaling back capacity.
Demand Dynamics:
In China, the market remains in a seasonal lull, with production resumption expected after the holidays.
Price Trends:
Module prices remained stable this week. Bifacial M10-TOPCon modules were quoted by leading manufacturers in the range of 0.63-0.70 yuan/W, while bifacial G12-HJT modules were quoted between 0.65-0.80 yuan/W by mainstream manufacturers. Although upstream cost pressures persist, downstream module price adjustments face significant resistance due to weak market demand.
