Polysilicon
Supply side:
Polysilicon inventories have climbed above 480,000 tons, with the inventory build-up trend still unchanged. Although leading polysilicon producers such as Tongwei and GCL have managed to ship limited volumes by bundling low-priced legacy contracts with higher-priced new orders, overall supply pressure remains heavy. Going forward, under industry self-discipline quota constraints, polysilicon manufacturers are expected to rein in supply through more aggressive production cuts.
Demand side:
Amid the seasonal industry slowdown and weakening market demand, downstream ingot producers have broadly responded to elevated prices by cutting operating rates and reducing procurement. As a result, effective market demand has contracted, and transaction volumes remain depressed.
Price trend:
The market is currently stuck in a “quoted prices but limited trading” situation. However, under manufacturers’ strategic price-support efforts, the polysilicon transaction price center has edged slightly higher. As supply–demand negotiations intensify, market dynamics are expected to shift from passive inventory accumulation toward proactive production cuts aimed at defending prices.
Wafers
Supply side:
Wafer inventories have risen above 18 GW. To ease inventory and shipment pressure, wafer manufacturers are expected to continue modest reductions in operating rates in January, attempting to rebalance the market through active supply contraction.
Demand side:
With downstream demand weakening, transactions for high-priced orders have been scarce, leaving the solar market locked in intense upstream–downstream negotiations. In addition, buyers’ acceptance of current quotations remains limited, and actual procurement appetite is subdued, resulting in overall sluggish trading activity.
Price trend:
Actual transaction wafer prices are generally around RMB 0.05 per piece below quoted levels, reflecting a clear “prices without volume” stalemate. In the near term, constrained by weak end demand and ongoing cost pressure, prices lack momentum for further upside and are expected to remain range-bound amid continued negotiations.
Cells
Supply side:
Cell inventory coverage has exceeded eight days and continues to rise. Under heavy cost pressure from sharply higher wafer and silver paste prices, most cell manufacturers have opted for significant operating-rate cuts in January, seeking to ease operational stress through supply-side contraction.
Demand side:
Downstream acceptance of recent price hikes remains extremely weak, pushing the market into a severe “quoted prices but no trades” condition. While most manufacturers are holding firm to a shipment floor of RMB 0.38/W, market procurement interest remains low, making it difficult for transaction volumes to scale up.
Price trend:
Mainstream quotations currently stand at RMB 0.38–0.40/W. In the short term, despite inventory pressure, downside price adjustments are difficult due to elevated wafer and silver paste costs, reinforced by industry self-discipline measures. Going forward, cell price movements will be closely tied to fluctuations in silver paste prices.
PV Modules
Supply side:
Short-term module inventories have declined noticeably, but this has not been driven by market consumption. Instead, it reflects the stockpiling activities. Fearing further price increases, distributors and some solar project developers have rushed to secure low-priced supply, resulting in inventory merely shifting from manufacturers to channels rather than being genuinely absorbed.
Demand side:
While midstream restocking activity remains relatively active, actual market demand continues to lag, with new orders scarce. As quotations rise sharply, the suppressive effect of higher prices on market demand has become increasingly evident, creating a mismatch characterized by “high demand in the midstream sector but cold in the market.”
Price trend:
Driven by rising cell costs, module production costs have increased to around RMB 0.75/W. Leading manufacturers have raised quotations to RMB 0.82–0.86/W, effectively eliminating low-priced deals from the market. Although high-priced transactions have yet to scale up, strong cost support suggests module prices will maintain a steady-to-firm upward bias amid ongoing supply–demand negotiations.
