Polysilicon
Supply:
Industry-wide polysilicon inventories remain severely overhang, with total polysilicon inventory exceeding 510,000 metric tons and still accumulating. Although leading producers such as Tongwei initiated production suspensions or cutbacks in January 2026, and average monthly output in Q1 is expected to fall to around 80,000 tons, the scale of upstream supply reductions remains insufficient to fully offset excess inventory pressure given the large inventory base.
Demand:
In contrast to the supply-side contraction, downstream demand has yet to show any meaningful recovery. Continued declines in wafer prices have transmitted negative feedback upstream along the value chain, further complicating polysilicon destocking efforts. Overall, the severe supply–demand mismatch is unlikely to be resolved in the short term.
Price Trend:
Downside expectations remain strong. Polysilicon quotations from major producers have fallen below RMB 55/kg, while market rumors suggest prices from some smaller polysilicon producers have even touched RMB 45/kg. Under the dual pressure of oversupply and falling downstream prices, polysilicon transaction benchmarks continue to face downside risk in the near term, with no clear price inflection point in sight.
Wafers
Supply:
Wafer inventories remain elevated at above 22 GW, with significant pressure of reducing the inventory. This is mainly due to the fact that ingot (crystal pulling) facilities have yet to materially cut operating rates, and continued high utilization rate has exacerbated supply-side imbalances.
Demand:
Downstream cell manufacturers are under intense cost pressure, while falling polysilicon prices upstream have created a reinforcing downward pricing cycle. Amid this vicious loop of dual-side price decline expectations, demand-side support remains fragile, and thus market pessimism has intensified.
Price Trend:
Mainstream wafer prices have retreated to pre-rally levels. Average transaction prices for 183mm, 210R, and 210mm wafers have fallen to approximately RMB 1.25/W, RMB 1.35/W, and RMB 1.55/W, respectively (with tier-2 and tier-3 suppliers generally pricing around RMB 0.05/W or even lower). Given expectations of further polysilicon price declines, wafer price benchmarks are likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
Cells
Supply:
Cell inventories remain relatively stable at around 6–8 days. However, the sharp surge in silver costs has driven supply-side divergence. Cell manufacturers that previously held insufficient volumes of low-priced silver, or have exhausted existing inventories, are now facing a choice between production cuts or shifting toward foundry manufacturing. Some cell producers have already seen potential output reductions, placing downward pressure on industry operating rates.
Demand:
Downstream acceptance of current elevated cell prices is limited, with transaction resistance becoming increasingly apparent. Despite strong cost-driven upward pressure, high cell prices have struggled to pass through smoothly due to significant resistance from the sale side. The market has entered an intense standoff between cost-push inflation and demand-side price suppression.
Price Trend:
Driven by rising silver prices, mainstream cell transaction prices have climbed to around RMB 0.42/W, with tier-1 producers quoting RMB 0.43–0.45/W. Current cell price levels are already elevated and almost entirely cost-driven. In the short term, access to low-cost silver inventory has become a key competitive advantage, and future cell price movements are expected to be highly correlated with silver price volatility.
PV Modules
Supply:
Catalyzed by adjustments to export tax rebate policies, module shipments have accelerated significantly, driving a continued drawdown in industry inventories. As shipment flows improve in the module sector, supply-side confidence has begun to recover. Therefore, some module manufacturers are even showing early signs of modest production increases. Overall operational efficiency at the module level currently exceeds that of upstream segments.
Demand:
The market exhibits a clear divergence. Domestic demand for solar modules remains weak, while overseas markets have sharply increased procurement activity in response to upcoming tax rebate changes. This “rush-to-export” driven concentration of orders has become the dominant force sustaining near-term market momentum.
Price Trend:
Spot prices from leading module manufacturers remain firm at RMB 0.80–0.85/W, with quotations continuing to edge higher, while tier-2 and tier-3 suppliers are pricing around RMB 0.78/W. In the short term, robust overseas demand provides strong price support. Looking ahead, price trends will depend on the durability of export momentum and the extent to which surging upstream silver costs erode profitability.
