Sluggish Module Orders Expected Next Month and Polysilicon and Wafer Sector See Clearance
2024-06-20 16:18

The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG. 

This week, trading activities for N-type polysilicon have been minimal. Following production cuts by some polysilicon manufacturers, their pressure to sell has eased, allowing them to maintain polysilicon prices more effectively. However, both the polysilicon and wafer sectors are depleting their inventories, leading to continued sluggish trading in the polysilicon market.

Regarding production plans, aside from a small number of producers planning to resume operations, most are still shut down for maintenance. Given the current supply and demand dynamics in the upstream and downstream sectors, the polysilicon market remains oversupplied this month.

The current polysilicon inventory stands at approximately 240,000 tons. Recently, integrated producers have shown a readiness to purchase more polysilicon to accelerate inventory depletion. In the future, despite inventory reductions, polysilicon prices are expected to remain at low consolidation levels due to the phasing out of outdated capacity, lower-than-expected operational rates, and significant losses and high inventories among downstream wafer producers. Additionally, changes in Southeast Asia's tariff policy are expected to impact the production plans of OCI in Malaysia and Wacker, potentially affecting overseas polysilicon prices.

The prices of wafer have still declined throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.20/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.75/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.45/Pc.

The operating rates of leading wafer producers have declined to below 40%, while integrated leading producers are maintaining around 50%, and small to medium producers are only at about 30%. Recently, wafer inventory has significantly decreased to 2.2 billion pieces, but N-type wafer inventory still needs further reduction. On the other hand, there is a shortage of P-type wafers as producers have stopped production and are rapidly depleting their inventories. However, with market demand for P-type wafers decreasing month by month, a significant rebound in P-type wafer prices is unlikely.

Regarding wafer prices, as the second quarter ends, wafer producers are likely to continue lowering prices to boost shipments and reduce inventory. Additionally, with declining demand for cells, cell prices are expected to remain stable in the future as both demand and supply in the cell sector decrease simultaneously.

The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.300/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.320/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.30/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.35/W.

Cell inventory has slightly increased this week. Due to sluggish orders from the downstream sector, cell production remains weak. Changes in cell production are expected in July, with some underperforming producers likely to suspend operations and payments due to cash flow issues. In the second half of 2024, many medium and small producers are expected to be phased out.

Regarding prices, as orders for modules decrease, demand for cells has also declined, leading to continued price fluctuations and consolidation in the future.

The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.80/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.82/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.82/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.84/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.86/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 1.00/W.

Regarding production plans, orders are projected to be lackluster in July. With a decline in installations, module inventory is likely to increase. Specifically, commercial and industrial (C&I) and residential installations in the domestic market are stagnating, while distributed PV installations are in the final stages of power reform. In the overseas market, utility-scale projects have been postponed in the second quarter, leading to increased module inventory in Europe and a slowdown in module imports for Q3. The Middle East market has maintained its import volume, but it will take time to bridge the order gap caused by tariff changes in Southeast Asia. As a result, module orders may remain sluggish next month.

Regarding the price trend, domestic bid capacity experienced significant changes last month, and N-type module bid prices were also affected. Consequently, future prices are likely to face increased pressure.

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