Post-SNEC: Industry Faces Ongoing Production Cuts, Future Plans Crucial for Producers
2024-06-17 17:23

Polysilicon prices remain stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.
This week, trading activities for both P-type and N-type products remain sluggish, with most polysilicon enterprises mainly consuming their existing inventory. Regarding production plans, 80% of polysilicon producers are undergoing maintenance, with about 15% gradually resuming production. However, considering the supply and demand on both the downstream and upstream sides, there is still an oversupply of polysilicon.
Downstream wafer producers, facing significant losses and high inventory levels, are particularly sensitive to polysilicon prices. As a result, even though the overall polysilicon inventory is increasing more slowly, prices are likely to remain low and stable. This is because leading polysilicon producers continue to bring new capacity online. The actions of these leading manufacturers will be crucial in determining the future price trends of polysilicon.

The prices of wafer have still declined throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.20/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.75/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.45/Pc.

Regarding wafer inventory, both leading and tier-2 producers have cut production as planned, resulting in a faster inventory consumption process. Recently, wafer inventory has declined to between 3.4 and 3.6 billion pieces. Producers are expected to maintain low production levels to further deplete this inventory.

Starting this month, the proportion of 210R products in production plans has increased significantly, driven by downstream module producers opting for these versions, leading to higher production of 210R wafers. In terms of prices, demand in the downstream sector has declined, keeping wafer inventory high. As the second quarter ends, producers face increased pressure to reduce inventory, weakening their bargaining power. Consequently, wafer prices are expected to remain low and stable.

Cell prices stop going down this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.300/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.320/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.30/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.35/W.

Due to lower orders from the downstream module sector, cell inventory has increased significantly this month and is expected to continue growing slightly. Tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers are continually reducing their production due to cash flow shortages. Additionally, intense competition has gradually driven down OEM fees.

Currently, OEM fees are nearing the cash cost of cell production, leading to potential losses for manufacturers regardless of whether they choose OEM or direct sales. Furthermore, with declining orders from the module sector, cell prices are likely to continue fluctuating and remain stable. High silver prices will also continue to impact the profits of cell manufacturers.

Module prices have maintained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.80/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.82/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.82/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.84/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.86/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 1.00/W.

Module sector production plans are decreasing as scheduled. It will take another one to one and a half months to consume the current module inventory, and with declining customer demand, there is a risk of inventory increasing.

For domestic installations, the outlook for distributed PV installations remains uncertain until the power reform policy is implemented. However, ground-based power plant installations are steadily increasing. In the overseas market, capacity in Southeast Asia will face stricter limitations due to new antidumping and countervailing duty petitions filed on U.S. imports of certain solar cells and modules from the region. Regarding module prices, monthly bidding prices are slightly declining, and some manufacturers are consuming their inventory, leading to intensified competition. Consequently, actual module prices are likely to decrease further.

Tags:solar PV