Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices remained stable on the whole this week, where mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials were respectively concluded at RMB 308/kg and RMB 305/kg. Polysilicon businesses, due to the loosened downstream wafer prices, were experiencing steadily rising pressure when negotiating for orders this week. A number of clients managed to sign their long-term orders in the mist of the stronger wait-and-see sentiment from the downstream sector, with concluded prices leveling to that of last week, while other orders are more focused on the short term. Polysilicon that was previously in transit due to the pandemic is now gradually increasing in volume under recovering logistics. A MoM growth in polysilicon is expected to be seen in November also from the release of new capacity. The reduction of downstream wafer prices may trigger a small drop of polysilicon prices, and the degree of decrement would have to wait for the bargaining between the two segments.
Wafers
Wafer prices had slightly loosened this week, where M10 and G12 were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 7.37/pc and RMB 9.71/pc, with mainstream wafer thickness now arriving at 150μm. Zhonghuan took the lead in lowering its wafer prices this week, where 150μm P-type 218, 210, 182, and 166 wafers are now respectively quoted at RMB 10.51/pc, RMB 9.73/pc, RMB 7.38/pc, and RMB 6.13/pc under a reduction of RMB 0.2-0.35/pc at 3.1-3.2% compared to last round’s quotations. The increase of polysilicon supply has yielded an increment of wafer output, while the downstream cell segment, due to constrained capacity for large-sized products, is insufficient in accommodation, where demand is elevating at a faster speed than that of supply. SMEs, having to worry about their inventory, are also gradually weakening in prices. In terms of operating rate, first-tier businesses had maintained at 75-85% this week, while integrated businesses sat at 70-100%, and other businesses had retained 80-100%. With the risen operating rate and the continuously climbing new capacity, output is expected to increase by a MoM of 5-10% during November, and wafer prices are still likely to drop within the short term.
Cells
Cell prices were essentially stabilized this week, where mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 cells were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 1.29/W, RMB 1.34/W, and RMB 1.32/W. As upstream wafer prices weakened this week, cell prices lacked dynamics in inflation, where the supply of large-sized cells remained on the confined end, which resulted in smooth signing of orders that essentially retained last week’s prices. Leading cell businesses, having focused on their centralized shipment of in-house module projects, are continuously dropping in available quantity of products for external sales. There is a smaller increase of new production for large-sized cells during November, whereas the arrival of peak delivery for modules would further elevate the operating rate of modules, and may aggravate the constrained supply tendency by an additional extent. The profitability of cells is likely to rise under the apparent declination of upstream wafer prices and the continuously restricted downstream supply.
Modules
Module prices remained sturdy this week, where mono-Si 166 modules were roughly concluded at RMB 1.91/W, while mono-Si single-sided 182 & 210 modules were concluded at approximately RMB 1.97/W, where bifacial double-glass mono-Si 182 & 210 PERC modules had seen a concluded price of RMB 2/W.
End demand has been essentially stabilizing recently. First and second-tier module makers are relatively unimpeded in shipment, and some businesses are constantly lowering their operating rate under production cost, while others had manifested slightly chaotic quotations this week from the seizing of orders. Mainstream businesses were stable in quotations, and saw concluded prices being leveled to that of last week. Most domestic projects of ground-mounted power stations are steadily entering the installation rush period. Despite deceleration in overseas exports, the sufficient level of module orders are prompting further willingness in production schedules. Robust upstream cell prices and the rebounds of glass prices are gradually amplifying the pressure of module makers, whose strong intention in inflation is receiving poor acceptance from the downstream sector. The high prices of modules are expected to persist. N-type modules are gradually stabilizing in mainstream quotations this week at RMB 2.16-2.2/W.
Regarding auxiliary materials, glass prices had significantly risen this week, where 3.2 and 2.0mm glasses rose to RMB 28/㎡ and roughly RMB 21.5/㎡ respectively that are both considered a high level for 2022. Glass has recently dropped in inventory amidst the increase of operating rate in modules, and is steadily reinforcing in bargaining power under the rising prices of raw materials such as natural gas and soda ash.
