Following the step last week, spot prices in the PV supply chain spiked further this week, not only in the up- and midstream sector but also for China's domestic PV modules, a trend expected to continue into first half of November.

China's polysilicon prices started to rise after the country’s National Holiday, with spot prices having hit RMB 110-115/kg, which induced upturn of polysilicon prices in other markets. With annual maintenance of some Chinese polysilicon plants putting a damper on supply, polysilicon prices are expected to advance further to beyond RMB 120/kg and might meet some resistance to the mark of RMB 125/kg.

Upturn in demand has enhanced the overall capacity utilization rate across the supply chain but supply for high-efficiency wafers is still insufficient, as some wafer makers have yet to resume full capacity. Price for ultra-high efficiency multi-si wafers climbed further to US$0.65/pc, and overall price for multi-si wafers would continue rising in the next two weeks.

Mono-si wafer suffers the most serious supply shortage in the supply chain, due to inability of first-tier supplies to meet market demand. Their spot price therefore boosted to US$0.75/pc, with no sign of letup.

PV cells’ spot prices have spiked according to wafer price’s raise, with price of mono-si PERC cell having hit US$30/W and that of multi-si cell having risen even more steeply to US$0.21/W, or around RMB 1.65/W in China. Prices of high-efficiency multi-si PV cells with conversion efficiency of 18.4% (and above) are expected to reach US$0.22/W soon. On the other hand, price hike of mono-si cells was relatively moderate with current price of around US$0.23 ~ 0.245/W.

It has been widely believed that Chinese government would slash PV subsidies after June 30, 2017, so EnergyTrend expects that the market demand could remain brisk from November through Chinese Lunar New Year holiday next year. On top of rapid prices hikes of polysilicon, wafers, and PV cells after China’s National Holiday, PV module prices in China have also risen to RMB 2.9~3/W. However, judging from the bid price for China’s recent solar bids, Chinese module prices will encounter strong resistance when approaching RMB 3.2/W. As a result, price growth may stop in mid-November. Companies therefore will face major challenge to rise prices in the fourth quarter. 

(Analysis provided by Corrine Lin, analyst at EnergyTrend. Translated by a contracted translator of TrendForce Corp.)