According to Wechat Official Account @gh_d49c9149838b, the domestic polysilicon market in the first quarter of 2025 continued to exhibit a "three lows and one high" operating status, characterized by low market prices and supply-demand, but high inventory levels. The market anticipates a balanced supply and demand in the second quarter, while futures market mechanisms are expected to alleviate inventory pressure within the industry.
Q1 Market Situation
Supply and Demand: In the first quarter, polysilicon companies across the country actively responded to calls for self-regulation by reducing production and operating rates. The average operating rate of domestic polysilicon enterprises fell to a historical low of below 40%. Domestic polysilicon production in Q1 was approximately 294,500 tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 44.7%. It is estimated that imports in Q1 were 8,500 tons, accounting for less than 3% of the total supply. Meanwhile, monocrystalline silicon production in Q1 reached 144.23 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 26.1%, resulting in a polysilicon demand of 298,700 tons. Polysilicon exports are estimated at 6,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 65.8%, leading to a基本 (basically) balanced market supply and demand. In the downstream photovoltaic sector, domestic installations in the first two months reached 39.47 GW, a year-on-year increase of 7.49%, while module exports were 36.6 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%. Notably, module exports to some countries such as Portugal and Pakistan saw significant year-on-year growth. Cumulative cell exports reached 11.1 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%.
Inventory: As of the end of March, the total inventory of the domestic polysilicon industry remained high at around 391,800 tons. The polysilicon segment experienced a slight destocking during the quarter.
Price: In the first quarter, the price of domestic N-type polysilicon for refeeding remained stable at around 41,600 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 41.49%. Prices have continued to decline, falling below the cash cost of almost all operating enterprises, and the entire industry has been experiencing negative cash flow for more than three quarters.
Q2 2025 Market Outlook
Supply and Demand: Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2025, China's polysilicon market is expected to maintain a balanced supply and demand. While the supply volume may be affected by the commissioning of some new production capacity and the high-water season at the end of the second quarter, most companies will prioritize capacity replacement to maintain equilibrium given the current low prices. A sharp short-term surge in production is unlikely. Domestic supply in Q2 is projected to be between 300,000 and 320,000 tons, an increase of no more than 10%. Meanwhile, wafer production in Q2 is expected to reach 150 GW, requiring 315,000 tons of polysilicon. Although inventory levels will remain high, the role of futures market "reservoirs" is gradually becoming apparent and is expected to alleviate inventory pressure within the industry.
Price: Domestic polysilicon prices are expected to remain balanced in the second quarter. While considerable uncertainties remain, the price outlook is largely influenced by pessimistic expectations for downstream demand following the "430" and "531" installation rushes in previous years. Additionally, there are still concerns within the industry about potential low-price concentrated sales by companies and concentrated resumption of production during the high-water season. After verification with relevant companies, the "low-price sales" rumors are unfounded speculation, and companies have not taken any substantive actions.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/YDOBHiL7oMSL2IRsh2cV8w
