Polysilicon
This Week's Prices:
This week, the mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 35.5/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 33.0/KG and N-type granular silicon is currently priced at RMB 32.5/KG.
Transaction Dynamics:
Polysilicon producers continue to hold firm on pricing. While the price negotiations between polysilicon suppliers and ingot (crystal pulling) manufacturers remain intense, overall transaction activity has started to see changes. Some ingot manufacturers have begun to accept higher quoted prices, though mainly at the lower end of the increasing price range. Certain buyers are also taking advantage of the price changes to acquire lower-priced polysilicon.
Inventory Trends:
As of this week, total polysilicon inventory is estimated to exceed 370,000 tons, with inventory levels continuing to rise. In addition, polysilicon production ramp-up during the month has widened the supply-demand gap.
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
There has been no fundamental shift in the supply-demand relationship in the polysilicon segment. Looking ahead to August, some polysilicon producers, buoyed by recent price increases, are expected to resume or ramp up production. Therefore, supply continues to outstrip demand in the polysilicon market. The industry is now transitioning from the "preparation phase” of anti-overcapacity policies to the “policy implementation phase,” with measures shifting focus from capacity control to price correction. During this transition, the pricing system appears somewhat disordered. Given the varying cost structures among polysilicon producers, transaction prices of polysilicon are highly dispersed. However, the overall transaction price center has indeed moved upward on a week-over-week basis.
Price Trend:
Prices for all N-type polysilicons rose across the board this week. The establishment of the lowest price has supported polysilicon producers in raising their quotes. Following successful price hikes in the wafer segment, downstream players have become more accepting of higher polysilicon prices. Looking ahead, as more deals are concluded, polysilicon prices are likely to continue trending upward, fluctuating higher amid ongoing negotiations and returning closer to producers' cost lines.
Wafers
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.00/Pc, while G12 N-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.35/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.15/Pc.
Supply-Demand Dynamics:
Production control measures by wafer manufacturers are beginning to show results, leading to a noticeable improvement in supply-demand balance and a significant reduction in inventory drawdown. Backed by strong wafer guidance price from industry benchmarks, wafer producers have broadly raised their quotes in an effort to pass through the cost pressure of rising polysilicon prices. Some wafer manufacturers have even increased their prices up to the level of the guidance price, though mainstream transaction prices have not yet fully reached that level.
Inventory Trends:
As of this week, wafer inventories have entered a phase of inventory clearance.
Price Trend:
Wafer prices across all specifications were sharply raised this week. Having previously suffered heavy losses, the wafer segment is now leading the rebound as supply and demand dynamics shift in its favor. Future wafer price increases will depend on the extent to which cost increases can be passed down the value chain.
Cells
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.23/W. The price of G12 N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.26/W and that of G12R N-type TOPCon cell is RMB 0.26/W.
Supply & Demand Dynamics:
The price of 183mm N-type cells has lagged behind amid sharp decrease in market demand, with mainstream module prices still stuck at around RMB 0.23/W. In contrast, price increases for 210mm N-type and 210RN cells have progressed more smoothly. Some traders and module manufacturers with urgent delivery needs have shown greater acceptance of higher pricing, with deals stabilizing in the RMB 0.25–0.26/W range. However, vertically integrated manufacturers have generally been resistant to the increased wafer prices.
Inventory Levels:
As of this week, inventory at specialized cell manufacturers stands at approximately 10 days, indicating a relatively balanced supply-demand environment and limited inventory pressure.
Price Trend:
N-type cell prices across all specifications saw upward adjustments this week. However, due to varying levels of demand, the price increases were uneven—210N and 210RN cells led the gains. Despite this, weak visibility into downstream module orders remains the biggest headwind to sustained cell price increases.
Modules
This Week's Prices:
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial dual-glass TOPCon modules is RMB 0.67/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.72/W.
Supply & Demand Dynamics:
Leading module manufacturers continue to receive relatively healthy order volumes, supported by early contracts and ongoing delivery tasks. However, second- and third-tier manufacturers face limited clarity on future orders, forcing them to lower prices to secure orders.
Price Trend:
Some distributors aligned with top-tier manufacturers have responded actively to the policy aimed at curbing price-cutting competition by raising prices by RMB 0.01–0.02/W. For leading module producers, the actual transaction price has stabilized around RMB 0.65/W. In contrast, lower-tier manufacturers with weaker bargaining power continue to adopt a low-price strategy, offering quotes between RMB 0.59–0.63/W.
The module segment remains the most competitive in terms of pricing. As downstream solar PV project development enters a more market-driven bidding phase, reductions in electricity tariffs are impacting project IRRs (internal rates of return), limiting users' tolerance for higher module prices. Consequently, many distributors remain reluctant to accept price increases, preferring to purchase lower-cost modules or stick to previously agreed contract prices.
Overseas Demand Snapshot
Europe: Module prices declined in June due to an influx of low-cost shipments, pulling down the overall price center. Demand has been gradually sluggish ahead of the summer holiday season.
India: Slight price increases for DCR-compliant modules, driven by government-backed solar PV projects and higher costs for some BOM affected by anti-dumping duties. However, prices for imported modules have declined slightly due to oversupply.
United States: FOB prices have remained stable for now. However, market sentiment is cautious ahead of expected trade policy fluctuations in July and August.
