Polysilicon Weekly Review: Irrational Decline in Prices and Intensified Expectations for Corporate Maintenance
2024-05-09 17:36

Polysilicon prices have been lowered again (including the two weeks before and after the holiday of International Workers' Day), with polysilicon prices declining before May Day and basically remaining stable after the holiday. Among them, the transaction price range of n-type rod silicon was 43,000-48,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 45,300 yuan/ton, down 7.93% month-on-month. The transaction price range of P-type dense polysilicon was 38,000-43,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 39,000 yuan/ton, down 8.88% month-on-month. The price spread of n/p rod silicon was 4,300 yuan/ton. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 39,000-41,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 40,000 yuan/ton, down 6.98% month-on-month.

According to statistics, there were 6 companies in N-type rod silicon and 5 companies in p-type rod silicon. A small number of enterprises began to sign orders on a large scale, and some of the pre-orders were successfully fulfilled after price adjustments. At present, the downstream polysilicon procurement strategy is mainly based on small quantities and multiple times, and some orders are packaged and sold in the form of fixed price mixed materials. On the whole, enterprises lack motivation to sign orders, and polysilicon inventories continue to accumulate. Pessimistic expectations and high inventory pressure are the main factors leading to the continuous decline in prices, but polysilicon prices have exceeded the cash costs of most enterprises, which will result in the maintenance expectations of enterprises to intensify the production lines.

As of this week, there are a total of 17 Chinese polysilicon production enterprises, among which 3 enterprises are under normal maintenance. According to incomplete statistics, five companies will carry out maintenance plans or technological transformation in advance this month, and three new companies will release their production capacity at a slower than expected rate. It is expected to alleviate the rapid growth of polysilicon supply. According to the forecast, the output of polysilicon in May will be about 190,000 tons, which will be the same as in April.