Polysilicon: Prices remain firm thanks to the output control policy, and prices are expected to increase in near future
Supply & Inventory: Clear signals of price support and output control have emerged in polysilicon sector recently. Although industry inventories remain as high as 400,000 tons, a series of meetings and policy directions are reshaping the future supply. The industry is currently implementing an anti–irrational price competition strategy, supported by production control meetings and national policies that aim to curb disorderly price undercutting and raise standards in the polysilicon sector. Polysilicon producers are showing strong determination to hold prices. Furthermore, expectations of production cuts in October further reinforce this stance.
Demand: Actual downstream transactions are scarce, as wafer producers hold relatively high stockpiles—some equivalent to 2–3 months of demand. With ample inventory on hand and rising upstream prices, downstream buyers lack incentive to procure the polysilicon, leading to a stalemate in market trading.
Price Trend: Given both supply and demand conditions, polysilicon prices show a clear pattern in the short term. That is “hard to fall, easier to rise”. Supported by meetings aimed at controlling production among producers, reserve purchase policies for polysilicon, and expected production quotas, bullish sentiment is strong. In conclusion, polysilicon prices have already reached RMB 55/kg, with further room for increases ahead.
Wafers: price momentum weakens, approaching the limits accepted by downstream segments
Supply & Inventory: Wafer inventory remains around 16 GW. With the National Day holiday approaching, some leading players are expected to implement significant output cuts, but most manufacturers are still maintaining high utilization rates, which could drive wafer inventories higher in the coming weeks.
Demand: Demand is showing structural divergence: 183N and 210N formats are in a tight supply–demand balance, supported by costs and firming prices, while demand for 210R remains weak, keeping prices stable.
Price Trend: Overall, wafer and cell prices are already close to the upper limit of what the market can absorb. Further price increases in the short term appear increasingly difficult.
Cells: short-term demand is strong, but it is highly likely that the price would drop after the holiday
Supply & Inventory: Cell inventories remain healthy, with specialized cell makers generally holding about five days of stock.
Demand: Overseas demand for 183N remains robust, and 210N orders are also solid. With expectations of further price hikes and pre-holiday stocking sentiment, module makers have been actively procuring, creating a short-term demand peak.
Price Trend: Supported by strong demand and rising costs, cell prices (except for 210RN) have been successfully passed downstream. Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, sustained by bullish sentiment and holiday stocking. However, cell prices are almost approaching the limits of module makers’ acceptance. Once stocking demand driven by price expectations subsides, the market may face price corrections and see price fluctuations. A key factor to watch post-holiday will be module makers’ actual October production schedules, which will determine whether demand—and prices—can be sustained.
Modules: prices stable but margins are squeezed, and thus leading module players are about to cut output.
Module prices remain stable, but rising upstream costs continue to erode the profitability of module producers. In terms of utilization rate, leading module makers show diverging trends: some are planning output cuts due to weak orders, while others are making slight increases, leading to a modest month-on-month rise in overall demand compared to August.
At the same time, with anti-irrational price competition measures deepening, the industry faces stricter production and sales controls in Q4. Recent industry meetings have stressed severe penalties for exceeding production quotas and introduced monitoring mechanisms. Such coordinated supply discipline across the value chain is expected to provide strong support for stabilizing prices.
