Polysilicon
Supply, Demand & Inventory:
Current industry-wide polysilicon inventories exceed 440,000 tons, and stockpiles continue to accumulate. Although polysilicon output has declined month-on-month, market demand during the off-season has weakened even more sharply, prompting buyers in the downstream segments to adopt increasingly cautious procurement strategies. In addition, as polysilicon producers are sitting on high inventories, and ingot (crystal pulling) manufacturers also maintain elevated stock levels, the supply-demand surplus remains prominent.
Price Trend:
Short-term polysilicon price stabilization is still supported by expectations of state-backed stockpiling and anti–price-war (anti-irrational rat race) policies. However, slow progress in stockpiling and increasingly pessimistic market rumors have eroded this support. While both upstream and downstream players share an interest in stabilizing prices, polysilicon oversupply continues to pose a risk of weak and sliding polysilicon prices. With the off-season approaching, some polysilicon producers may be forced to offload products at lower prices to alleviate inventory pressure, which could trigger further slight price concessions.
Wafers
Supply, Demand & Inventory:
Wafer inventories have climbed above 25 GW. Despite production cutbacks by wafer manufacturers, high stock levels remain difficult to digest, and producers are facing sluggish shipments. On the demand side, cell makers remain cautious with procurement, with orders mainly consisting of small, short-term batches. Additionally, the significant production cuts initiated by cell manufacturers in December continue to weigh on the wafer supply-demand balance.
Price Trend:
Leading manufacturers are still attempting to uphold prices, but are increasingly challenged by lower-priced shipments from second- and third-tier players. Transaction prices continue to drift downward. While wafer prices still carry downside risk, polysilicon costs now provide a firming floor, limiting the extent of further declines in wafer prices. In conclusion, the wafer market is gradually entering a bottoming-out phase.
Cells
Supply, Demand & Inventory:
Cell inventories have now risen to 8–10 days and continue to trend upward. With demand weakening both domestically and overseas, cell producers have broadly adopted production cuts and price reductions, but shipments remain sluggish. One exception is 210RN cells, which maintain relatively strong supply-demand resilience thanks to firm orders from leading manufacturers and optimistic expectations for next year.
Price Trend:
Low-priced orders from second- and third-tier makers are driving price concessions among top-tier suppliers. Given extremely weak December demand, cell prices still face downward pressure. 183N and 210N products carry the highest risk of further corrective declines. By contrast, 210RN cells benefit from cost-line support and stronger price-holding sentiment among manufacturers, lending some stability to prices.
Modules
Supply, Demand & Inventory:
As northern China＇s centralized solar PV projects wrap up and the overseas market enters its seasonal lull, the market demand for PV installations has dropped sharply. Module makers face severe order shortages, and demand is unlikely to improve in Q1. Companies broadly exhibit signs of deep production cuts and early holiday shutdowns.
Price Trend:
Falling cell prices have eroded upstream cost support, and low-priced orders continue to push transaction prices downward. Competition remains intense in mainstream module categories, with inventory-clearance prices repeatedly hitting record lows. With upstream prices still sliding, module prices remain at risk of further declines.
