Report
July Production Plans Decline Further; Wafer Prices Poised for Rebound
2024-07-04 17:46

Polysilicon:
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.

This week, orders in the polysilicon sector have improved, with increases in both N-type and P-type polysilicon orders. However, customers are still purchasing polysilicon based on their immediate needs.

Regarding production plans, the new capacity of two leading producers reached full production in the second quarter, but this increase was offset by production reductions due to maintenance and suspensions. Consequently, July's production is expected to reach around 150,000 tons. In terms of inventory, there was a slight increase in June. Given the supply and demand gap expected in July, polysilicon inventory is likely to continue accumulating by the end of the month. However, this inventory will likely shift from polysilicon producers to ingot producers.

This week, polysilicon prices remained stable, with N-type polysilicon priced at 38 yuan/kg. Prices set by tier-2 manufacturers are relatively low, contributing to overall price stability. By the end of July, polysilicon prices may fluctuate, depending on the dynamics between polysilicon makers and ingot producers and their progress in depleting inventory.

Wafer:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.20/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.75/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.10/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.45/Pc.

In July, the operation rates in the wafer sector vary significantly. Leading and top specialized wafer producers maintain high operation rates due to their cost advantages, aiming to capture more market share. Integrated manufacturers increase their purchasing proportion when their production costs are lower than the market price, while less competitive specialized manufacturers keep their operation rates low to minimize losses. Consequently, July's production plans are expected to remain low, hovering around 50GW to 52GW. By the end of July, inventory levels are anticipated to decline to around 3 to 4 billion pieces.

Regarding prices, the pressure from wafer inventory has gradually eased. Although some specialized manufacturers have not succeeded in raising their N-type wafer prices, some producers still expect to increase prices when the supply of their specific wafer types is tight. However, whether they can achieve this depends on the inventory consumption process at the end of July. In the third quarter, there will be orders for P-type wafers, and with limited P-type capacity, it is expected that some P-type wafer producers will raise their prices.

Cell:
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.300/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.320/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.30/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.35/W.

Production plans in the cell sector are expected to remain sluggish. P-type cell production is declining as some capacity has been upgraded to N-type. Conversely, N-type cell production is increasing. In July, cell production is projected to reach around 53-55GW. Specifically, the production outlook for tier-2 specialized manufacturers is not positive. As integrated manufacturers increase their own production and reduce external purchases, their operation rates are expected to decline. Additionally, if cash flow issues arise in the future, these manufacturers may face the risk of halting production or phasing out capacity.

In July, inventory will continue to face downward pressure. Regarding prices, orders from the downstream module sector are sluggish, and demand and supply vary across different cell versions. On one hand, the supply of 210RN cells is more abundant as some manufacturers ramp up production, which may lead to price adjustments. For other cell types, if production is scaled back, supply and demand can remain balanced, keeping prices stable.

Module:

The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.80/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.82/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.82/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.84/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.86/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 1.00/W.

In July, production plans in the module sector remain sluggish, with module production expected to reach around 44-46GW, and inventory continuing to rise. In the overseas market, South Africa has revised its solar module tariff policy due to the influx of low-priced solar modules. Consequently, many foreign markets are adopting a more cautious approach to importing solar modules and are increasingly inclined to strengthen domestic solar manufacturing.

In the domestic market, installations are on the rise, but there is no significant driver to boost distributed PV installations. Regarding prices, they are under pressure and expected to continue declining. Leading module manufacturers are facing insufficient orders this month, indicating weak demand. As a result, some manufacturers are lowering prices to attract more orders.

Solar Glass:

This week, solar glass prices decline.The mainstream concluded price for 2.0mm coating glass is RMB 15.5/㎡, while 3.2mm coating price is priced at RMB 24.5/㎡.

Regarding solar glass prices, the price of 2.0mm coated glass has decreased by 13.89% to RMB 15.5 per square meter, while the price of 3.2mm coated glass has fallen by 7.55% to RMB 24.5 per square meter. On the supply side, the operational capacity of the domestic solar glass sector stands at 115,340 tons per day, with both production and capacity on the rise. Consequently, the supply of solar glass is trending upward. On the demand side, orders from the downstream module sector remain sluggish, leading to lower demand for solar glass from module manufacturers. It is anticipated that in July, the imbalance between supply and demand for solar glass will worsen, putting further pressure on prices.

 
Tags:solar PV
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