Report
Divergent Paths: Market Dynamics Shift Between P-type and N-type Products Across All Segments; P-Type Prices Decline and Cleared Out
2023-12-28 16:15   | Editor:faye   |    1 Numbers

Polysilicon:

Polysilicon prices have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 59/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 57/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 64/KG.

Examining the current market dynamics reveals that, starting this week, most companies are gearing up to finalize new orders, yet only a handful have successfully secured deals. Notably, the demand for N-type polysilicon surpasses that of P-type, and there's an expectation of new orders in the upcoming week. Concerning polysilicon types, the demand for P-type polysilicon is declining rapidly, leading to a continued decrease in its price. In contrast, the demand for downstream N-type products is steadily increasing, prompting polysilicon enterprises to expedite adjustments to the proportion of N-type polysilicon output. However, a supply shortage in N-type production capacity persists. Consequently, the price of N-type polysilicon is anticipated to remain stable. This week witnessed a month-on-month decline in the price of P-type polysilicon. Simultaneously, technological changes are driving structural shifts in customer demand for polysilicon, resulting in a swift and irreversible reduction in the demand for P-type polysilicon. Nevertheless, the price of high-quality P-type polysilicon, suitable for N-type product manufacturing, continues to find support. Looking ahead, the price of N-type polysilicon will be contingent on its supply as both its supply and demand increase concurrently.

Wafer:  

The prices of wafer have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.90/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.00/Pc and M10 N-type is priced at RMB2.25/Pc.

P-type Wafer: The supply and demand scenario is quite evident. With a gradual decline in demand for P-type wafers, upstream crystal pulling manufacturers are adjusting their output structure. Consequently, it's inevitable for P-type wafers to shift from mainstream products to customized ones.

N-type Wafer: Currently, wafer inventory is on the rise again, with a significant portion being N-type wafers, exerting increased pressure on N-type wafer inventory. Despite this, N-type wafer prices can maintain stability, thanks to support from their production cost and demand from downstream cell manufacturers. As wafer inventory continues to grow, some specialized manufacturers are considering production cuts to avoid the intense price competition resulting from oversupply. Against the backdrop of excess production capacity and sluggish prices, certain wafer manufacturers are planning to postpone the launch of new production capacity. There's a question mark over whether some of this new capacity can come online in the absence of sufficient cash reserves, given the intense competition in wafer prices. Additionally, leading wafer manufacturers have publicly introduced rectangle N-type wafers, signaling a gradual shift towards rectangle wafers becoming one of the mainstream sizes. The specific advantages of these wafer types will be tied to the types of rectangle modules.

Cell:

Cell prices have diverged this week, with the M10 cell price going down and other cell prices being stable. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.37/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.38/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.46/W.

P-type Cell: The market for P-type cells is experiencing a swift decline in both supply and demand. Downstream purchasing demand has diminished rapidly. On the supply side, a majority of P-type cell production capacity has already ceased, and those facilities unable to transition to TOPCon cells are being phased out at an accelerated pace.

N-type Cell: The output of N-type cells remains relatively stable. Some manufacturers are expediting the commissioning of their N-type processes and production devices, aiming to bring online N-type cells that meet the required standards. Consequently, the supply and demand for high-efficiency N-type cells remain robust, providing significant support to N-type cell prices. This week, P-type cell prices have continued to decline, reflecting a considerable contraction in market transactions. On the other hand, N-type cell prices have remained stable.

Module:

Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.98/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 1.00/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.00/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 1.01/W.

On the supply side, there's a lack of positive orders for modules next month, indicating an anticipated drop in production schedules compared to the previous month. Production schedules are expected to decrease to the range of 40-43GW. In terms of the production schedule breakdown, the share of TOPCon modules continues to rise, while P-type and other N-type modules are experiencing a significant reduction. Towards the end of this month, both domestic and overseas markets are heading into the off-season, and manufacturers are eagerly awaiting signals of demand recovery. Leading manufacturers are maintaining stable prices, buoyed by solid order support. Meanwhile, some second and third-tier manufacturers are strategizing to deplete their inventories by offering lower prices. This week, module prices are essentially holding steady, with demand and supply contracting simultaneously, resulting in a stable state of market transactions.

 
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