Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices had carried on with the inflation tendency this week under a decelerated degree, with mono polysilicon sitting at an overall quotation of roughly RMB 242/kg. Most February polysilicon orders have now been signed, and one additional business had signed for a long-term order in February this week. There is now an insignificant quantity of excessive materials on the market, where the drastic reduction in new concluded orders is slowing down the level of polysilicon inflation.

An observation on the production, operation, and shipment of the polysilicon sector indicates that businesses that have resumed production among the 13 operating businesses are expected to increase the domestic supply of polysilicon during March. Individual first-tier businesses are aiming to implement successive production line overhaul in the first quarter of 2022, and the addition of the worse-than-expected release of expanded capacity will result in a restricted output of polysilicon. The wafer end continues to release new capacity, with continuity seen in end demand. Polysilicon prices are estimated to remain on a surging tendency in March amidst mismatches between supply and demand, as well as the sufficient support from material prices.

Wafers

Wafer prices remained largely stable this week, with a minor climb back seen in multi-Si wafer prices. M6, M10, and G12 were concluded at a respective mainstream price of roughly RMB 5.25/pc, RMB 6.3/pc, and RMB 8.35/pc. The compelling demand in the end market has invigorated ascending purchase demand for cells, and indirectly elevated wafer demand, which yielded a smoother shipment in wafers. M6, M10, and G12 wafers have somewhat increased in output during February, while G1 wafers continues to drop in output that is accompanied by a steady reduction in market share.

Due to the robust installation demand in overseas, multi-Si wafer had slightly risen to approximately RMB 2.21/pc in mainstream concluded price, with additional inflation dynamics subsequently. First-tier wafer businesses are currently maintaining a higher level of operating rate, and successively initiating production for their expanded capacity. Wafer production for February is expected to be higher than that of January, and wafer prices may still increase if the booming status persists for end demand.

Cells

Cell prices remained overall stabilized this week amidst intensifying bargaining sentiment. M6, M10, and G12 were concluded at approximately RMB 1.09/W, RMB 1.12/W, and RMB 1.13/W respectively this week. Partial cell businesses have upward adjusted their quotations due to the successive price increment from upstream polysilicon and wafer sectors, though overall market transactions have been proven to be difficult. As the bargaining sentiment between cell and module sectors intensifies, some cell businesses have reflected on the stronger sense of riding the fence among several module makers under partially prepared stocking, and cell businesses had essentially maintained a higher level of operating rate during the Chinese New Year holiday that yielded a relatively sufficient supply. Subsequent cell prices are expected to have a limited room for inflation.

Modules

Module prices remained stable on the weaker end this week, where mono-Si 166mm, 182mm, and 210mm were concluded at respective mainstream price of roughly RMB 1.85/W, RMB 1.88/W, and RMB 1.88/W. A number of first-tier businesses had signed for February orders prior to Chinese New Year, and most module makers had focused on executing previous orders this week. In addition, the continuity of overseas demand is also yielding smooth shipment. Aside from inflation seen in upstream prices from the industry chain, the auxiliary material end, including backplanes and glasses, is also fermenting an inflation tendency. Some distributors have commented that partial businesses are now offering their 166mm single-sided modules and bifacial double glass modules for more than RMB 1.9/W and RMB 1.95/W. End demand has returned to the rising slope, while the market’s wait-and-see attitude is gradually expanding, and several module makers have planned to lower their utilization in March in the hope of bargaining with upstream cell and auxiliary material ends.

Pertaining to auxiliary materials, glass prices had remained sturdy this week, and the incessant end demand has actuated a marginal increase in demand for the PV glass market with support in prices, though the low level of acceptance from module makers has impeded dynamics in inflation. 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 27/㎡ and RMB 21/㎡.

(Image: zak zak via Flickr CC BY 2.0）