Polysilicon
The quotations for polysilicon continue to loosen this week, whereas the domestic and overseas prices for mono and multi polysilicon persist in a decelerated depleting trend. As the overall polysilicon market gradually releases partial production capacity, the market is now infused with an overall sufficient supply, and the prices continue to loosen. The mainstream quotation for mono polysilicon has been continuously lowered to RMB 85-90/kg, with an average price of RMB 88/kg, whereas the mainstream quotation for multi polysilicon is now at RMB 55-60/kg, with an average price of RMB 57/kg. The global polysilion markets continue to decrease in marginal degree alongside the market, and the average price has been adjusted to US$10.874/W. The overall demand for polysilicon has weakened as of this week, where most polysilicon businesses are currently in the order execution phase, thus the volume of transactions has been relatively stagnant. Partial businesses have reflected that they will focus on inquiries and observation this week due to the apparent price suppression and the slightly decelerated purchase intensity during the procurement of polysilicon, despite the robust downstream wafer quotations.
Having entered late-November, the supply volume of the domestic polysilicon market continues to surge, and 2 out of 11 operating polysilicon businesses remain in the overhaul phase. For the overseas markets, a number of businesses had essentially exported their inventory to the domestic market at the end of the third quarter, and the supply volume in November is expected to reduce compared to the initial period. Generally speaking, as domestic polysilicon businesses continue to release supply of polysilicon after production resumption, the production volume of the product is expected to elevate continuously, with the monthly production volume of polysilicon anticipated of reaching to 37K tons, before arriving at the peak of 2020 during November and December. Under the invigoration from polysilicon supply and the demand from the end market, the prices of multi polysilicon will remain on the minor deteriorating trend, and the subsequent polysilicon market will gradually enter a balanced supply and demand state along with the successive release of expansion capacity from wafer businesses.
Wafers
The wafer market is relatively quiet this week, where the overall quotations for wafers are continuing from the trends of last week. High-efficiency wafers remain on a tight supply in the current market with robust quotations. A number of businesses had completed signing the orders for mono-Si M6 during early November, which resulted in the unchanged prices of mono-Si wafers, where the domestic average prices of G1 and M6 are maintained at RMB 3.05/pc and RMB 3.2/pc respectively, whereas the overseas quotations for G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers are now US$0.4/pc and US$0.42/pc respectively. In addition, the peak quarter at the end of the year, together with the overhaul for the equipment of wafer fabs, have diminished the supply volume of mono-Si wafers for partial businesses, and have started to stabilize the prices of wafers. Looking at the demand status for various sizes of wafer products, the major demand resides on large-scale wafers, and the demand for G1 wafers remains relatively sluggish, whereas the procurement of G1 wafers has become more difficult compared to several weeks ago, with enhanced aggressiveness seen from the purchase negotiation of the cell sector
Since multi-Si wafer is regarded as a niche market, the product has essentially adopted the build to order method, and the decelerated reduction in polysilicon prices has prompted the prices of multi-Si wafers to remain stable, where domestic and overseas prices are maintained at RMB 1.45/pc and US$0.195/pc. The incessant stagnancy in the demand for multi-Si wafers has forced a number of second and third-tier businesses to exit the market successively, and the majority of orders are centralized on first-tier businesses, whereas other second and third-tier businesses are basically producing based on the obtained orders.
Cells
The overall quotations of cells remain stable this week, where the high concluded prices for large-scale products have slightly elevated. The overhaul for upstream mono-Si wafer fabs during the fourth quarter has directly impacted the supply of cell materials, and actuated the overall concluded prices of mono-Si cells to stabilize, where the high conclude prices for partial M6 cells have risen. The overall prices of large-scale cells remain sturdy right now, with the domestic and overseas average prices maintained at RMB 0.92/W and US$0.12/W respectively, however, the overhaul of wafer fabs from the past two weeks, as well as the conserved strategy pertaining to the production of G1 products adopted by cell businesses, have resulted in the static regarding material shortage for G1 cells in the market. The quotation for the specific product is currently lingering at RMB 0.85/W from first-tier businesses, and maintained at above RMB 0.8/W for second-tier businesses, for which the phenomenon has yet to be fully reflected on the prices, thus the shortage of G1 materials should be placed under observation to determine if it is an individual occurrence. The market visibility for multi-Si cells remains low, which stabilizes the quotations of the particular product, where the domestic and overseas average prices are now at RMB 0.55/W and US$0.073/W.
The cost of modules continues to ascend under the impact from the inflated quotations for auxiliary glass, and most businesses are no longer willing to accept cell orders that are now generally more expensive. An observation on the propulsion of large-scale cells indicates that the market mainstream is focused on new production expansion, whereas production lines have been established in accordance with the compatibility of G12 and below, with merely a small number of plants have transformed from G1 directory to the production lines of large-scale cells. In addition, partial businesses have obtained fewer overseas orders due to insufficient funds in production expansion, and the cell market may expedite on the elimination of the trailing production capacity in the future alongside the successively release of production capacity for large-scale cells as the transformation for the specific product is currently in a predicament.
Modules
The overall module market resides on a stabilized state with minor price increases, where the prices of mono-Si modules have slightly escalated. The quotations for auxiliary photovoltaic glass have yet to be stabilized, which continues to elevate the cost of modules. With the exacerbated bargaining between the module sector and the end market, a number of module makers are unable to withstand the pressure, and have been forced to implement a severe inflation so as to propel partial order conclusion. The quotations for modules this week are extending from the trends of last week, where several makers are attempting to raise the prices, which resulted in the quotation increase for the 325-335W/395-405W mono-Si PERC module to RMB 1.54-1.67/W, with an upward adjustment to RMB 1.57/W for the average price, whereas the quotation for the 355-365 / 425-435W mono-Si module has been adjusted to RMB 1.64-1.72/W, with the average price maintained at RMB 1.67/W.
Regarding multi-Si modules, although the overall operating rate of modules has been impacted by the inflation and material shortage from the supply chain, the pandemic status in overseas and the weaker demand for multi-Si modules have provided support for the domestic and overseas quotations to remain sturdily at RMB 1.35/W and US$0.181/W this week. On the other hand, looking at the recent domestic tenders of modules, the tender and bid prices in November have increased evidently compared to the third quarter, and state-owned businesses have announced the procurement project of the 5GW module that initiated the photovoltaic tender in China for 2021, which has 5 times the procurement scale than the 1GW tender during 2020, and covers multi-Si and large-scale (≥166) mono-Si modules, indicating the certainty of domestic installation and development, as well as the demand trend of large-scale modules, in 2021.
In terms of auxiliary materials, the overall quotations of photovoltaic glass have decelerated this week amidst the inflation, among which the 3.2mm glass has been upward adjusted to RMB 44-50/㎡ from the continuous price increase, whereas the 2.0mm glass has surged to RMB 32-36/㎡. First-tier module makers have been signing long-term orders with photovoltaic glass businesses since the third quarter in order to guarantee a provision that will cover the next two years, though the insufficient supply from the market has resulted in the perpetual quotation increase for glass, with transactions successively concluded. A number of businesses have commented that the existing production capacity for glass is extremely constrained, and the quotations for the product will not subside within the short term.
