Polysilicon
The bargaining in the polysilicon market persists this week, and the overall closing prices continue to decline marginally. Among which, the mainstream quotation for mono polysilicon is at RMB 92-97/kg, with the average price lowered to RMB 94/kg, whereas the price of multi polysilicon is relatively maintained at an average price of RMB 65/kg. The impact of the exchange rate has slightly propelled the average price of multi polysilicon in non-China regions to US$11.411/kg, and actuated the global average price of polysilicon to US$11.719/kg.
Among local businesses that are currently producing multi polysilicon, one of the two Xinjiang businesses that are in the midst of overhauling production lines has been gradually recovered, and another is expected to resume normal production in November. As the production capacity successively recovers in Xinjiang, the supply volume of the polysilicon market is on a progressive ascension, and the overall supply and demand of the specific market is marching steadily towards a balanced state. In addition, an additional polysilicon business has entered production suspension and overhaul in Inner Mongolia, and the production capacity from the overhaul in Sichuan is forecasted for gradual release starting from late October, with the production volume of polysilicon in the market expected to approach 35K tons during October, signaling a somewhat tight supply of polysilicon as a whole.
Wafer
The market transaction of the overall wafer market remains stable this week, with minor reduction in the prices of multi-Si wafers. The order volume of multi-Si wafers for first-tier businesses is currently optimistic, though the order demand from small and medium-sized businesses has exhibited sluggishness, especially with the sign of loosened closing prices for partial orders subsequent to the National Day of the PRC, which has triggered the quotation interval for the multi-Si wafer market to lower to RMB 1.52-1.65/pc, whereas the domestic and overseas average prices are now at RMB 1.54/pc and US$0.209/pc. Pertaining to mono-Si wafers, the market demand has been remarkable, and the overall quotations remain resilient, where the average prices for G1 and M6 are maintained at RMB 3.05/pc and 3.2/pc respectively, with a price difference lingering at RMB 0.15/pc.
The mono-Si wafer market continues the trend from last month after the National Day of the PRC, where major suppliers had signed for the order of this month in the beginning of this month, and most wafer businesses are currently in a stable delivery phase of purchase orders for upstream polysilicon despite the full load status during the long holiday. The loosened upstream and downstream quotations have applied additional pressure on the overall multi-Si wafer market, and the relaxed quotations offered by small and medium-sized businesses when faced with new requests for quotation have resulted in a minor depletion of closing prices for multi-Si wafer orders.
Cells
The overall quotations for cells sit firmly this week, where the closing prices for a small number of G1 orders have exhibited a declining trend. The significant differentiation in the current market demand for mono-Si cells has prompted the price of G1 to fall once again, whereas M6 continues to remain sturdy. The quotation interval for G1 cells is currently at RMB 0.83-0.89/W, with a mainstream market quotation at RMB 0.85/W, and the average price of M6 cell remains at RMB 0.92/W. Due to the limited degree of price declination, the average price of multi-Si cells sits stationarily at RMB 0.55/W.
Looking at the overall transaction status of cells, the demand for end projects has exhibited recovery signals as the fourth quarter befalls, and the M6 orders for October from mainstream suppliers have basically been filled due to the preference on large-scale cells from the downstream sector, with robustness seen in closing prices. On the contrary, the demand for G1 is gradually shrinking, and the price continues to fluctuate. Regarding multi-Si cells, the end demand has started to exhibit stagnancy, though the quotation is expected to remain sturdy due to limited degree of deterioration.
Modules
The quotations for modules have fluctuated marginally this week, of which the quotations for large-scale modules have returned to the rising slope. Having entered 4Q20, first-tier module makers are handling significant amount of orders, and the closing prices for partial replenished orders are RMB 0.03-0.05/W more expensive than the closing prices prior to the holiday. Second and third-tier module businesses are prone to weaker ability in obtaining orders, and that suppliers are yet to perceive an elevation in demand during 4Q20. The quotations for modules have yet to be unified due to separate negotiations for individual orders. Apart from the relatively low prices in partial tenders, the market quotations for M6 module by mainstream businesses are all above RMB 1.6/W, which has impelled the average price of the 355-365 / 425-435W mono-Si PERC module to slightly rise to RMB 1.61/W.
On the other hand, the restriction derived in the new production capacity of glass that began from 2H20 has elevated cost during August and September, which has created tenseness in both demand and supply, thus resulting in the incessant inflation of photovoltaic glass. The excess supply status will become the primary trend recently, and the tension emanated from the demand and supply of glass is expected to remain unalleviated until the end of this year. As the ratio of large modules of 182 and 210mm escalates, large-scale glass is forecasted to sustain a structural shortage in the future.
In terms of overseas markets, the second bounce back in the status of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in Europe, and has not substantially impacted the overall projects, whereas the partial lockdown implemented for a period of time during 3Q20 has led to a certain degree of temporal impact to a number of projects for the Spanish market. The US plans to increase the duty on photovoltaic imports in 2022, and reinitiate the taxation policy on bifacial modules that will elevate the cost of imported modules for local businesses, and a fluctuation is expected to occur in module prices between 4Q20 and 1Q21. The focus of the emerging markets remains at India, where the progress of local photovoltaic installation has decelerated due to the pandemic during 1H20. As the pandemic-induced impact mitigates on the market, and that the overall market is shifting to an improved status as the end of the year approaches, the degree of improvement in the local demand remains to be a worthy focus.
