In contrast to the continuing price hike for polysilicon in China, downstream module prices on various markets have trended downward in December, putting a damper on the price level on the overall supply chain, including multi-si wafers and mono- and multi-si PV cells, with the exception of mono-si wafers, due to serious shortage of supply.

Although most Chinese polysilicon factories have resumed production following completion of annual maintenance, polysilicon has still been in short supply in China, due to the effect of reviewing of anti-dumping investigation against South Korean polysilicon import. With transaction price of some orders having hit RMB 140/kg in China, most suppliers have limited inventory for selling. Spot prices range RMB 136-138/kg in China, compared with the range of US$13.3-15.5/kg in Taiwan. Although prices are believed to have peaked and expected to drop subsequently, prices will remain stable in the short term, due to price settlement for orders in first half of January.

Price drop of multi-si wafers, alongside that of PV cells, has been suspended, as high polysilicon prices have cut margin of multi-si wafer suppliers to razor-thin level. Multi-si wafer prices have stabled at RMB 5.0-5.1/pc, compared with US$0.63-0.66/pc abroad. Due to continuing serious shortage in supply, prices of mono-si wafers have stayed high ranging US$0.80-0.85/pc.

PV cells suffered steepest price drop in the week and the downward trend will not be reversed until the eve of the Chinese Lunar New Year, clouding hope of multi-si PV cell (with conversion efficiency rate of 18.4%) suppliers to keep prices above US$0.22/W. While mono-si wafer prices have stayed high, mono-si PV cell prices have declined rapidly and only mono-si PERC cells have remained profitable. Plus shortage of mono-si wafers, most PV cell firms have refused to accept orders for standard mono-si PV cells.

Except continuing price decline for standard PV modules, mono-si PERC modules have also been mired in acute price competition, as integrated factories have cut their quotes to less than US$0.4/W, prompting non-integrated factories to offer comparatively low quotes. It is expected that high price/performance ratio of PERC modules will keep demand high for overall mono-si supply chain. Except mono-si wafers, margins of PV cells and modules have declined conspicuously, clouding the outlook of the high-performance market.  

(Analysis provided by Corrine Lin, analyst at EnergyTrend; translated by a contracted translator of TrendForce Corp.)