According to Wechat Official Account @gh_50df44b75fe0,
Polysilicon: Fierce Game Between Upstream and Downstream, Cost Pressure Forces Production Cuts
Downward Revision of Production Schedules and High Inventory Pressure The polysilicon production schedule for May has been revised down to 100,000 tons (month-on-month -5%). Leading companies have postponed the resumption of production at their southwest bases, and some companies have started maintenance. As of the end of April, polysilicon inventory reached 250,000 tons (month-on-month +0.1 thousand tons), and downstream silicon wafer manufacturers' inventory was 100,000 tons (usable for one month), leading to increased divergence in procurement strategies.
Prices Fall Below Cash Cost Line Current polysilicon prices have led to cash flow losses for leading companies, but buyers continue to push down prices based on weak demand. The volume of warehouse warrants registered is only 30 lots, indicating strong market wait-and-see sentiment.
Key Contradiction: The game between polysilicon companies' willingness to hold up prices and the downstream silicon wafer manufacturers' pressure from losses. Attention needs to be paid to the progress of warehouse warrant registration in May.
Silicon Wafers and Solar Cells: Losses Across the Entire Chain Force Production Adjustments
Silicon Wafer Prices Fall Below Cost Line The low prices of M10, G12R, and G12 silicon wafers have fallen to RMB 1.0/piece, RMB 1.15/piece, and RMB 1.35/piece, respectively, falling below the cash cost line of 90% of enterprises (the cost of M10 is approximately RMB 1.1/piece). Silicon wafer inventory increased to 20.62 GW (week-on-week +1.09 GW), and the expected production schedule for May has been revised down to 55 GW (month-on-month -10%).
Solar Cell Prices Accelerate Decline The low prices of M10, G12R, and G12 solar cells have fallen to RMB 0.265/W, RMB 0.27/W, and RMB 0.28/W, respectively, and inventory has accumulated to 4 GW (week-on-week +0.2 GW). Current prices are close to the 2024 low, and companies may be forced to cut production to stop losses.
Modules: Price Decline Accelerates After the End of the Rush Installation Period
Distributed Generation Prices Fall Below RMB 0.7/W The price of distributed generation modules has fallen to RMB 0.68-0.71/W, with new order quotations even below RMB 0.68/W; the price of centralized generation modules remains stable at RMB 0.67-0.69/W. The production schedule for May has also been revised down to 53 GW (month-on-month -12%).
Uncertainty Remains in Demand Succession The launch of domestic centralized projects is slow due to quota adjustments, and overseas markets are suppressed by the EU's carbon tariffs and US trade barriers, potentially slowing down export growth.
Source：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hBPKIu7AqISpllm_5VKznw
