Despite Tesla’s top position in the global EV market, other multinational automakers have been catching up quickly. Therefore, it is hard to say how long the EV maker will maintain its first-mover advantage. As auto analyst John Murphy at Bank of America indicated in the annual Car Wars study, Tesla’s dominant 70% market share will plummet to 11% in 2025 with increasing competition in the EV market. The prediction has garnered attention among relevant suppliers.  

By 2025, car companies will roll out a total of 135 new EVs, while Tesla’s dominance in the US market will likely be replaced by General Motors or Ford. The two long-standing manufacturers will capture a 15% share in the EV market. Murphy added that General Motors plans to release 17 new EV models in 2023–2026, compared to Ford’s 6 new models in the same period.

During an event held by the Automotive Press Association in Detroit, Murphy also made a prediction that Tesla will lose its EV crown in USA soon, with the development shifting radically to the opposite direction in the next 4 years. The study estimates that EV sales in the US will jump by 8 times from 400,000 in 2021 to more than 3.2 million vehicles in 2025. Within the 4-year period, car makers will unveil 245 new cars, 60% of which will be hybrid.       

Murphy holds that Tesla failed to—when taking the lead—expand its product and investment portfolios to catch up with other multinational players and startups. Over the past decade, very few businesses can compete with Tesla, giving the EV maker a near monopoly in the market.

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