Polysilicon
Supply side:
Polysilicon inventories have now exceeded 520,000 metric tons, remaining in a phase of slight inventory accumulation. Obviously, shipment pressure and inventory digestion challenges are intensifying across the polysilicon sector. Meanwhile, monthly polysilicon output has increased compared to the previous month, while demand from the downstream sectors is expected to drop sharply, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Demand side:
Downstream wafer manufacturers have generally fallen below cash cost levels, and cost pressure is being transmitted upstream. Wafer producers are purchasing only on a just-in-time (JIT) basis, with only sporadic small-volume transactions. Strong downward price pressure from buyers persists.
Price trend:
Market transaction prices for mono dense polysilicon have fallen below RMB 40/kg, with granular silicon also approaching the same threshold. Although policy guidance released this week aimed to stabilize polysilicon prices and has slightly boosted market sentiment, high inventories and weak demand continue to cap any short-term rebound. Overall, polysilicon prices remain under downward pressure.
Wafer
Supply side:
Wafer inventories are currently around 25 GW. While leading wafer manufacturers have signaled potential production cuts to support prices, the structural oversupply situation in the wafer segment has not fundamentally changed, and shipment pressure remains.
Demand side:
The ramp-up pace of downstream cell production is relatively slow, limiting incremental demand and weakening the sector’s ability to absorb wafer supply. Coupled with declining cell prices, overall demand support for wafers remains weak.
Price trend:
Second- and third-tier wafer manufacturers, along with traders, continue to cut prices to clear inventories, dragging down overall market prices. Current wafer prices continue to decline across formats: M10 (182/183mm): RMB 1.0/piece; G12R (210R): RMB 1.1/piece; G12 (210N): RMB 1.3/piece.
Large-volume orders still allow room for price negotiation. Wafer prices have already fallen below cash cost levels, suggesting limited further downside. However, if leading players implement significant, coordinated production cuts, a price rebound may follow.
Cells
Supply side:
Cell inventory levels remain above one week of production, with inventory drawdown slower than expected. Shipment pressure on cell manufacturers continues to increase.
Demand side:
As the deadline for export tax rebate benefits approaches, market participants are becoming more cautious. Overseas customers have significantly slowed procurement, while domestic module manufacturers—under pressure from price cuts in the solar pv market—are becoming increasingly conservative in cell purchasing.
Price trend:
Cell prices continue to decline, with mainstream prices now around RMB 0.40/W. Falling upstream wafer costs are driving down cell manufacturing costs. Combined with weakening downstream module demand, there is a high risk of further price declines in solar cells. In conclusion, cell prices are expected to trend lower in the near term, with little sign of stabilization.
PV Modules
Supply side:
Leading module manufacturers are maintaining relatively firm quoted prices, but aggressive sales strategies from second- and third-tier producers and traders have increased the availability of low-priced modules, intensifying competition on the supply side.
Demand side:
Market demand remains primarily overseas. However, as adjustments to export tax rebate policies approach, the urgency of overseas solar installations is fading, and high-priced orders are declining. Domestically, although installation projects are expected to pick up in April, acceptance of high module prices remains very low. Utility-scale solar projects are still in a wait-and-see mode, with buyers targeting transaction prices below RMB 0.75/W.
Price trend:
Actual transaction prices from second- and third-tier manufacturers and traders have generally fallen below RMB 0.78/W, reinforcing expectations of further declines. Negotiations are expected to materialize later this month, with RMB 0.75/W or lower likely becoming the mainstream transaction range. Before any meaningful recovery in demand, module prices are expected to retain further downside.
