Polysilicon: Favorable policies offset high polysilicon inventories, and thus polysilicon prices hold firm at high levels.
Supply & Inventory: The main bottleneck in the polysilicon sector remains the high inventory, now exceeding 400,000 tons and still showing a slight build-up. However, there are signs of proactive supply-side adjustment: although newcomers such as Lihao and East Hope are ramping up polysilicon output, industry leaders are planning production cuts or suspensions at their Sichuan and Yunnan bases after the National Day holidays. Overall, total polysilicon output in October is expected to be flat compared to September.
Demand: Ahead of the holiday, market activity is subdued as leading downstream players had already stockpiled enough raw material earlier. With market demand falling short of expectations, downstream players are mainly focused on consuming existing inventories.
Price Trend: Despite a loose supply-demand balance, polysilicon prices remain stable, primarily underpinned by strong favorable policy expectations. The market broadly anticipates the rollout of a national anti-irrational price competition policy, giving polysilicon producers confidence to maintain their offers. Consequently, there is a widening gap between quotations and actual transaction prices in the polysilicon sector. Supported by limited supply-side discipline and strong policy expectations, polysilicon prices are expected to remain firm at high levels in the short term, pending clearer signals from market demand or policy.
Wafers: Costs, demand, and supply: factors of strong bullish sentiment for wafer prices
Supply & Inventory: The wafer segment is relatively healthy, with total inventories at around 16 GW, which is still manageable. By wafer sizes, supply-demand tightness persists for 183N and 210N formats, while 210RN inventories are easing thanks to proactive production adjustments by manufacturers. Looking to October, the National Day holiday and industry association-led production curtailments are showing clear expectations of reduced wafer supply.
Demand: Strong procurement demand from the cell segment is effectively absorbing wafer output.
Price Trend: Wafer prices are under strong upward pressure from the combined effects of higher upstream polysilicon costs, robust downstream cell demand, and looming supply cuts. Together, these drivers underpin bullish market sentiment, making a near-term price decline unlikely. Instead, wafer prices are expected to stay firm or move higher in the short term.
Cells: Multiple factors support strong cell prices in the near term
Supply & Inventory: The overall supply-demand balance in the cell segment remains favorable, with inventories at a healthy low of 3–5 days. Cell supply adjustments are targeted and clear rather than broad-based: most manufacturers have sharply reduced output of 210RN cells due to weak demand, while only minor production cuts are expected during the National Day holiday. Overall, cell supply remains stable.
Demand: Demand continues to diverge by format. 183N cells are mainly driven by overseas markets such as Turkey and India, largely serving export or re-export demand. 210N cells are supported by the demand in the Chinese market, while 210RN continues to see sluggish uptake in China.
Price Trend: With lean inventories, robust demand for mainstream products, and rational supply-side adjustments, cell prices are expected to remain firm in the short term.
Modules: Costs and policy provide dual support; module prices remain firmly underpinned.
The module market is currently shaped by the dual drivers of rising upstream costs and policy expectations, resulting in strong price support alongside widening performance divergence among manufacturers.
The key factor is that upstream cost increases have pushed module costs to the critical threshold of RMB 0.70/W. Consequently, there is huge price difference between old and new orders, squeezing module manufacturer margins. This is leading to clear market differentiation: while Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers are constrained as new orders incur losses, leading players continue to maintain high utilization rates, consolidating their market positions.
At the same time, the industry’s anti-irrational competition initiative—through stricter quota-based controls on production and sales—is becoming a key variable shaping Q4 supply.
Overall, with costs forming a solid price floor and expectations of supply contraction under industry self-discipline, module prices enjoy strong support and are expected to remain firm in the short term.
