Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 37/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 35/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 41/KG.
Transaction Status: In the polysilicon market, post-holiday trading sentiment remains subdued, with overall deliveries primarily focusing on delivering previous orders. After the recent price hikes for polysilicon, trading activity has been tepid, as ingot manufacturers continue to face losses. Therefore, they are trying to control overall costs by consuming low-cost inventories or orders and are mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, purchasing only as needed.
Supply and Demand: Polysilicon output is expected to see a slight rebound of nearly 2% this month, reaching about 130,000 to 140,000 tons, driven by major manufacturers resuming production after maintenance. However, the expected diversion of polysilicon stock via the newly launched polysilicon futures market depends on the future actions of futures traders and merchants. On the demand side, due to challenges in clearing inventories, wafer manufacturers continue to operate at low utilization rates. As a result, the demand for polysilicon may decrease further, and surplus supply could potentially become more serious this month.
Price Trend: The concentration in the polysilicon segment continues to rise monthly, strengthening manufacturers' bargaining power and offering some support for holding price increases. However, given the significant surplus inventory, intense price competition persists in this segment. Polysilicon prices are likely to stabilize this month under manufacturers' firm stance, with future observations focusing on capacity adjustments and the impact of pre-stocking for the polysilicon futures market on the supply-demand balance.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.15/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.08/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.50/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.25/Pc.
Supply and Demand: On the supply side, wafer production continues its downward trend month-on-month, estimated to be in the 48-49 GW range. Moreover, production continues to diverge, with second- and third-tier ingot manufacturers further reducing or halting operations. The reducing part of production is mainly caused by reduced or ceased P-type wafer production. This month, N-type wafer production accounts for nearly 95% of total output. On the demand side, the downward trend in cell production persists, and with module manufacturers continuously forcing prices down, the price pressure on wafers remains high, offering limited support.
Price Trend: The demand for 182N wafers has turned downward, and the proportion of production in this category has also been reduced this month. Some manufacturers may panic and cut prices to clear inventory. Meanwhile, the share of 210RN wafers in total output has increased significantly, with 210 wafers (R-type) accounting for nearly 20%. The gap caused by adjustments in downstream product sizes is rapidly being filled, leading to an oversupply of wafer and further price pressure on wafer manufacturers.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.270/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.270/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.270/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.285/W and that of G12R mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.270/W.
Supply and Demand: Cell production is expected to decrease by 4-5% month-on-month, with cell production adjusted down to 50-51 GW. The reduction is mainly due to size upgrades by some manufacturers, and second- and third-tier manufacturers continue to reduce or halt production due to their high inventory levels. This trend of production divergence is expected to intensify in Q4. On the demand side, major manufacturers have seen a slight recovery in orders due to the booming ground-mount installations, but overall module production recovery remains limited. The intense price competition in the module sector makes it difficult to support cell prices.
Price Trend: Prices for certain sizes have been revised downward this week, with P-type M10 and G12 both falling to RMB 0.27/W, while N-type G12R saw a faster production surplus, dropping to RMB 0.27/W as well.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.69/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.70/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.70/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.71/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.86/W.
Supply and Demand: Module production this month shows divergence. Major manufacturers, driven by order delivery, are leading the recovery, while small and mid-sized manufacturers are seeing a decline in orders, resulting in various levels of production drops. Overall, monthly production is up by 3-4%, reaching 49-50 GW. On the demand side, centralized PV installations have led to a slight recovery in orders for some manufacturers, but there has been no clear recovery in distributed PV projects. Overseas, inventory backlog issues in Europe are intensifying, leading to another month-on-month decline in module prices.
Price Trend: Prices for all types of modules remained stable this week. For bifacial M10-TOPCon modules, major manufacturers have adjusted their pricing range to RMB 0.65-0.73/W, while smaller manufacturers are offloading inventory at lower prices around RMB 0.65/W to return cash flow. For bifacial G12-HJT modules, mainstream pricing is concentrated in the RMB 0.75-0.83/W range.
PV Glass
Prices: This week, mainstream transaction prices for 2.0mm coated PV glass were RMB 12.5/m², and for 3.2mm coated PV glass, RMB 21.0/m².
Supply and Demand: On the supply side, production is expected to decrease month-on-month due to line maintenance and kiln closures. On the demand side, September saw relatively low stocking levels among module manufacturers. With the expected increase in module production post-holiday, stocking activity should pick up. However, rising inventories and a continued decline in upstream soda ash prices will continue to exert significant pressure on PV glass prices.
