Polysilicon
The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.
Transaction Details: Most transactions this week were for fulfilling previous orders, with little new orders added during the month. With expectations of reduced production in the ingot segment next month, the number of orders for different polysilicon types are declining. However, futures and trading orders, primarily driven by arbitrage opportunities, have seen an uptick, providing some support to overall transaction volumes.
Inventory Dynamics: Currently, polysilicon inventory levels remain stable, with week-on-week inventory ranging between 200,000 to 220,000 tons. Although some producers are resuming maintenance and increasing capacity in September, others are continuing with plans to reduce or halt production. As a result, overall inventory pressure in the polysilicon segment is expected to remain stable.
Price Trends: Prices remained stable this week, with strong cost-side support. Given that manufacturers’ cash flow was heavily depleted in Q2, the trend of polysilicon supply declining is becoming more evident for Q3 and Q4. In the short term, polysilicon prices are likely to remain in a state of consolidation, influenced by supply and demand reduction.
Wafers
The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.15/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.65/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.08/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.50/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.25/Pc.
Supply and Demand: Under the pressure of three consecutive quarters of losses, leading specialized wafer producers are adjusting their production plans, with other specialized producers likely to follow suit. The consensus to alleviate oversupply on the supply side is growing stronger, but demand remains under significant pressure. Currently, the marginal supply and demand for wafers are simultaneously decreasing.
Price Trends: Wafer prices held steady this week, with price increase signs observed from two industry leaders, In addition, second-tier specialized manufacturers tend to follow suit. However, cell manufacturers, anticipating high wafer inventory levels, have shown limited acceptance of higher prices. Additionally, factors such as price pressure on cells and reduced demand are creating obstacles for passing on costs. Nonetheless, given that prices have long been in an irrational range and wafer manufacturers’ cash flow is nearing its limits, the trend of continued supply reduction is clear. The early stages of Q3-Q4 could represent the annual low point for wafer prices.
Overseas Dynamics: As ingot equipment is installed, new wafer production capacity in Indonesia and the United States is expected to gradually come online, catering to local cell demand. With adjustments to tariff regulations in some countries, overseas wafer prices may experience different trends.
Cells
The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.290/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.290/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.275/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.280/W.
Supply and Demand: Downstream module manufacturers are facing factors that may impact their production increase, with a risk of lower-than-expected production next month. This has led to a reduction in external orders from module manufacturers, increasing the risk of continued demand reduction for solar cells. Cell manufacturers are also under pressure from rising upstream costs and downstream segments asking for more profits. Therefore, their production reductions are noticeable. Obviously, profits for solar cell manufacturers are likely to remain under pressure. Additionally, a specialized BC solar cell manufacturer has recently begun supplying BC cells to the downstream segment, but overall transaction volumes remain low. Further volume growth will depend on large-scale production from two major module manufacturers.
Price Trends: Pressure on mainstream solar cell prices continues to increase. Leading specialized manufacturers have shown signs of price adjustments recently, but the outlook for OEM pricing remains uncertain. Solar cell prices held steady this week, with marginal supply and demand both decreasing. Prices are expected to continue in a state of consolidation.
Overseas Dynamics: New production capacity is gradually coming online in Southeast Asia during Q3 and Q4. Following an increase in tariff quotas, demand from U.S. domestic module production is expected to increase, enhancing shipment momentum during the window period.
Modules
The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.71/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.73/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.72/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.74/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.76/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 0.90/W.
Supply and Demand: In September, module production has been slightly revised compared to expectations. Overall, module producers’ orders still require recovery. On the demand side, module export values in July showed a month-on-month and year-on-year decline, with insufficient module import in Europe due to the summer holidays and local grid connections. Therefore, there is a slight reduction in August’s overall module transaction prices in Europe. In the Middle East, the module import remained stable. In particular, after the region’s long-term energy goals were established, more investment and construction will be there to support module demand. In other regions, the impact of tariff policies is becoming increasingly apparent, causing delays.
Price Trends: Module prices across different types remained stable this week, but there is still more intense competition in prices, resulting in lower prices for more shipments. Some manufacturers, eager to secure payments to cover upstream costs, have started offering significant discounts to traders, leading to more low-priced orders that are disrupting the market. Meanwhile, the desire to cut prices and win orders has grown stronger among two leading BC manufacturers, further undercutting current mainstream technology prices.
