N-Type Polysilicon Prices Drop Below 40 yuan/kg; N-Type Wafer and Cell Prices Hit Record Lows
2024-05-23 16:35

Polysilicon prices have declined further throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 34/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 32/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 38/KG.

Based on current trading activities, polysilicon enterprises are focused on fulfilling previous orders as there is no incentive for manufacturers to sign new contracts. Given the current polysilicon prices, manufacturers would incur significant losses if they took on new orders. However, some manufacturers with depleted cash flow are still selling their products at low prices. Consequently, inventories among polysilicon manufacturers are accumulating, now reaching between 280,000 to 320,000 tons. Both suppliers and customers are experiencing high inventory pressure, leading to extended periods of stagnant transactions.

This week, polysilicon prices have continued to drop, with N-type polysilicon falling below 40 yuan/kg, and some manufacturers trading at prices close to 35 yuan/kg. The profit margin for polysilicon per watt is currently around -0.02 to -0.03 yuan.

Starting next month, leading manufacturers plan to gradually shut down their older capacities, and more manufacturers are preparing for maintenance. However, the reduction in capacity will be offset by new capacities coming online, so we will need to observe the actual rate of production decline. In the current price environment, most manufacturers are competing to maintain cash flow. It is expected that, aside from the capacities owned by top manufacturers, other planned new capacities may be delayed or even canceled. In the future, polysilicon prices are likely to remain low and undergo a period of consolidation.

The prices of wafer have still reduced throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 1.25/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 1.85/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.15/Pc and G12 N-type is RMB 1.85/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for N-type G12R wafers is RMB 1.50/Pc.

Wafer inventory has increased slightly from last week, holding steady at around 5 to 5.1 billion pieces. This rise is due to weak demand from downstream customers and a smaller-than-expected reduction in ingot production, leading to continued high inventory levels. In terms of planned production, the wafer sector's utilization rate has started to fluctuate in mid- to late May. Leading manufacturers are gradually cutting production, while others have already shut down some production lines. However, the existing wafer inventory still needs to be reduced, making future wafer price trends uncertain.

Currently, the net profit for a single watt wafer is around -0.03 to -0.04 yuan, with N-type wafer manufacturers facing significant losses. Moving forward, wafer prices are likely to gradually bottom out or enter a period of consolidation under substantial pressure.

Cell prices have declined this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.300/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.320/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.30/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.35/W.

Cell inventory has increased from last week, now standing at around 2.4 to 2.6 billion pieces. With the tariff policy taking effect in regions with high cell premiums, downstream customers are adjusting their purchasing strategies in advance. As the gap between supply and demand in the cell sector widens, cell inventory is expected to continue rising.

Regarding planned production, specialized cell manufacturers are planning to reduce output, and direct distributors are under significant pressure. Additionally, as OEM fees continue to decline, the burden on cell manufacturers intensifies. This week, the prices of all cell types dropped, although N-type and P-type cell prices remained unchanged. The phase-out of P-type cell capacity is accelerating, and P-type capacities that have not yet been upgraded to N-type are likely to be shut down. In the future, cell prices are expected to stay low, and the integration of cell capacities will accelerate.

Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.80/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.82/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.82/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.84/W. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm bifacial TOPCon modules is RMB 0.86/W, and 210mm bifacial HJT modules at RMB 1.00/W.

The supply and demand in the module sector remain stable. Currently, module sale prices are holding steady, but distribution prices are under pressure. As June approaches, the U.S. tariff exemption on solar products from Southeast Asia is set to expire. In May, the U.S. initiated a new round of anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on PV cells and modules from Southeast Asia, with final results expected in the fourth quarter. The end of the tariff exemption will negatively impact the profitability of modules exported from Southeast Asia to the U.S., likely reducing the proportion of PV modules the U.S. imports from that region.

This week, module prices are expected to remain stable, with future price trends dependent on upstream raw material costs.

Tags:solar PV