Polysilicon：
Polysilicon prices have maintained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 60/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 58/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 71/KG.
In the realm of trading, securing polysilicon orders proves to be a rarity. The industry is currently in the process of fulfilling existing orders, with many manufacturers still in the negotiation phase. On the supply side, the recently activated production capacities are now in full swing, contributing to an overall increase in capacity. Notably, polysilicon manufacturers show no signs of halting production or undergoing maintenance, indicating a continuous uptrend in polysilicon supply. It is anticipated that polysilicon production in February could reach approximately 170,000 tons.
Turning our attention to demand, the wafer sector is experiencing heightened interest in acquiring P-type polysilicon, driven by the resurgence in market demand for P-type wafers. Conversely, the demand for N-type polysilicon is diminished due to accumulating inventory in downstream sectors. Recent increases in power prices in Sichuan province are expected to elevate the production costs of polysilicon.
In summary, considering all these factors, the trajectory of polysilicon prices remains uncertain. However, if wafer inventories continue to swell, manufacturers may exhibit reduced interest in procuring polysilicon. Consequently, the polysilicon market could witness pivotal shifts in pricing come March.
Wafer:
The prices of wafer have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 2.05/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.00/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 1.98/Pc and G12 N-type is priced at RMB 3.05/Pc.
On the supply side, crystal pulling manufacturers continue to operate at high utilization rates, resulting in a continuous increase in inventory and putting significant pressure on inventory accumulation. Currently, the wafer inventory hovers between 2.7 billion to 2.9 billion pieces.
Turning to the demand side, only manufacturers with confirmed orders have concrete plans for work resumption, while other specialized cell manufacturers are progressing slowly in resuming operations. Additionally, there is no significant uptick in demand for N-type cells from downstream sectors, leading to continued low production of N-type cells. Consequently, the consumption of N-type wafers remains sluggish. This week, buoyed by anticipated higher demand, prices of P-type wafers remain steady. However, the inventory pressure is causing fluctuations and a decline in prices for N-type wafers. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the inventory of N-type wafers will increase, leading to a slight additional decline in their prices.
Cell:
Cell prices have been stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.380/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.380/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.46/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.
On the supply side, production scheduling in the cell sectors remains subdued, and uncertainty looms over downstream demand. Additionally, the resumption of work among cell manufacturers varies: those with confirmed orders are scaling up their operations, while tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers are only restarting some production lines to build up inventory.
Turning to the demand side, orders secured in the last quarter provide support for some downstream manufacturers to resume production. However, the resumption of work for other downstream manufacturers is sluggish, resulting in a tepid demand for cells. Currently, major manufacturers are contemplating raising prices for high-efficient N-type cells. Nevertheless, downstream sectors exhibit a limited willingness to accept higher prices, especially when many are grappling with losses. The declining price of N-type wafers, however, might contribute to a slight recovery in N-type cell profits.
Module:
Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.93/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.95/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.94/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.97/W.
On the supply side, with the exception of a few leading manufacturers that have secured orders, most tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers face scarcity in orders. Consequently, production scheduling in the module sectors towards the end of this month remains at a low point. However, there are promising signs of improvement in production scheduling within the module sectors.
Shifting to the demand side, there is no discernible increase in demand for modules. In the domestic market, the demand for modules in the distributed PV sectors is contingent upon grid connection capacity. Meanwhile, changes in demand for modules in the utility-scale sector are anticipated in Q2. In non-European and non-American areas of the overseas market, robust demand persists, and optimism surrounds areas where tariff policies are set to change in the first half of 2024. In the European region, inventory consumption processes remain stable, and shifts in demand for modules are expected in the second quarter. Based on our analysis, module inventory consumption was satisfactory towards the end of Q4 2023. Consequently, despite the overall sluggish market demand, there is relief in inventory pressure. It is anticipated that module prices will remain stable in the near future. However, as the cost of auxiliary materials rises, contributing to an increase in the non-silicon cost of modules, some manufacturers find themselves compelled to raise prices (by one to two cents). The acceptance of this price hike by customers, however, is still pending.
