Report
Post-Holiday Anticipation: Potential Divergence in Wafer and Cell Prices, Module Market Awaits its Upturn
2024-02-08 13:33   | Editor:faye   |    1 Numbers

Polysilicon:

Polysilicon prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 60/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 58/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 71/KG.

On the supply side, the production of polysilicon saw a slight dip compared to last month, attributed to a decrease in working days during February. However, the introduction of new production capacity is contributing to an overall increase in output. Additionally, there are upcoming production facilities slated to commence operations officially in March, potentially adding more strain to the supply of P-type polysilicon.

Concerning N-type polysilicon, it continues to receive support from the demand side. The commissioning process for new production capacity aimed at producing qualified N-type polysilicon is still ongoing, implying a delayed impact on the supply. Consequently, the supply pressure for N-type polysilicon remains relatively low.

Shifting focus to the demand side, crystal pulling manufacturers maintain a high production scheduling, providing substantial support for the demand for polysilicon. The robust demand for N-type polysilicon from these manufacturers ensures a tight balance in the supply and demand dynamics. It is crucial to monitor the possibility of N-type wafer inventory accumulation post the Spring Festival holiday. If wafer manufacturers decide to scale down the production of N-type wafers, there is a likelihood of a gradual decline in N-type polysilicon prices later in the month due to weakened demand.

Wafer:  

The prices of wafer have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 2.05/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.00/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 2.00/Pc and G12 N-type is priced at RMB 3.10/Pc.

On the supply side, this month has seen wafer manufacturers maintaining a high utilization rate, keeping the overall output consistent with last month. Market expectations lean towards a rebound in demand for P-type wafers, resulting in a slight increase in P-type output. However, N-type wafer output remains relatively stable. Unfortunately, with downstream cell manufacturers significantly reducing their production scheduling, the inventory of N-type wafers is expected to climb further, exerting additional pressure on the supply side.

Shifting to the demand side, cell manufacturers have made substantial cuts in production, leading to simultaneous declines in the output of both P-type and N-type cells. This reduction in cell production provides less support for wafer demand. As per the current production scheduling plans of crystal pulling manufacturers, there is high pressure on N-type wafer inventory this month. Furthermore, by the end of the month, the price trend for N-type wafers will be influenced by excess supply, remaining weak. Conversely, with the supply and demand relationship improving and a simultaneous increase in demand for P-type wafers after the holiday, the price of P-type wafers is expected to rebound.

Cell:

Cell prices have maintained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.380/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.380/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.46/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, this month's cell output has experienced a nearly 15% month-on-month decline, influenced by holidays, outages, and various other factors. Cell manufacturers are now more hesitant to sell their products. Furthermore, a prevailing strategy among manufacturers this month involves favoring the production of N-type cells over P-type cells. Regarding N-type cells, the manufacturers, in response to sluggish customer demand, are continuing production but with the sole purpose of sustaining partial operation of their production lines. Additionally, their focus lies in debugging the production lines and implementing advanced technology to optimize output efficiency.

Turning to the demand side, due to a slump in orders, module manufacturers have generally scaled back their operations, resulting in reduced demand for cells. This diminished demand fails to offer adequate support on the demand side. Consequently, it is anticipated that P-type cell prices will experience a slight increase after the Spring Festival holiday, thanks to a rebound in demand. On the other hand, N-type wafer prices are expected to remain low and consolidate due to the persistently sluggish demand.

Module:

Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.93/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.95/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.94/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.97/W.

On the supply side, influenced by the off-season, production scheduling among module manufacturers has experienced a significant downturn this month, with a month-on-month decline rate approaching 20%. Major manufacturers typically cease production for a week, while specialized manufacturers, grappling with a dearth of orders, halt production for over half a month. Shifting focus to the demand side, large-scale domestic projects have largely suspended trading. In the overseas market, aside from robust demand in India, the European market is yet to show signs of recovery. Following the recent trend in bidding prices, there is intense competition in module pricing. Both N-type and P-type modules are facing fierce price competition, leading some players in the industry to initiate production clearance efforts.

 
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