Report
The Convergence: N-Type Wafer Price Aligns with P-Type for the First Time, While Other Segments Maintain Stability, Says by TrendForce
2024-01-26 17:10   | Editor:faye   |    1 Numbers

Polysilicon:

Polysilicon prices have maintained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for mono recharge polysilicon is RMB 57/KG, while mono dense polysilicon is priced at RMB 55/KG and N-type polysilicon is currently priced at RMB 64/KG.

Regarding transactions, enterprises are currently finalizing their orders for February, with some having already completed the process. Anticipated is the occurrence of new orders within the week. On the supply front, the polysilicon manufacturers are maintaining stability, and the integration of new production capacity is proceeding smoothly. Consequently, the supply of N-type polysilicon stands resilient, and the disparity in the proportion of N-type polysilicon between leading and second/third-tier manufacturers has widened. This grants leading manufacturers the pricing authority for N-type polysilicon. With the impending lunar new year, crystal pulling manufacturers are poised to intensify their stockpiling efforts, lending robust support to the demand for N-type polysilicon. As a result, a delicate equilibrium is maintained in supply and demand. Moreover, leading manufacturers are exhibiting a stronger inclination to bolster the price of N-type polysilicon, striving to push it upward. Nevertheless, due to the constrained profits of wafer manufacturers, no actual transactions are occurring at the higher prices for N-type polysilicon.

On the demand side, crystal pulling manufacturers are sustaining high operational rates, driving substantial momentum for accumulation. The production of N-type polysilicon is rigid, characterized by a relatively high production threshold. Consequently, downstream wafer manufacturers are eager to secure orders of N-type polysilicon to solidify their market share during the shift from P-type to N-type. Despite the cumulative inventory of N-type wafers, manufacturers maintain consistent purchasing demand. It is foreseen that post the Spring Festival, there remains potential for an increase in polysilicon prices, contingent on the purchasing demand of crystal pulling manufacturers and the pace of supply.

Wafer:  

The prices of wafer have diverged throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 P-type wafer is RMB 2.00/Pc, while G12 P-type wafer is priced at RMB 3.00/Pc. The mainstream concluded price for M10 N-type wafer is RMB 2.00/Pc and G12 N-type is priced at RMB 3.10/Pc.

On the supply front, wafer manufacturers are still running at high capacity. On the cost side, it is anticipated that there will be a rise in polysilicon prices, leading wafer enterprises to adjust their product prices accordingly. The M10 P-type wafer price continues its upward trend, showing a growth rate of 2.56% this week. The concluded price for M10 P-type wafers has now reached RMB 2 per piece. With the shrinking manufacturing capacity share of P-type wafers, the actual output of these wafers is also decreasing. Consequently, P-type wafer inventory is steadily depleting, providing P-type wafer suppliers with increasing momentum.

Turning to N-type wafers, if the operation rates among crystal-pulling manufacturers remain stable over the Spring Festival holiday, the production speed of N-type wafers is expected to surpass consumption, resulting in an inventory buildup and increased pressure on prices. On the demand side, the overseas market, particularly in India, exhibits higher demand for P-type cells. Some P-type cell orders have impending delivery dates in Q1, indicating a definite trend of growing demand for P-type wafers. It is anticipated that, once P-type cell manufacturers adjust their product prices, P-type wafer manufacturers will follow suit and raise wafer prices. Conversely, due to high inventory, N-type wafer prices continue to face pressure. The quoted prices of both N-type and P-type wafers offer insights into the dynamics of their supply and demand.

Cell:

Cell prices have remained stable this week. The mainstream concluded price for M10 cell is RMB 0.375/W, while G12 cell is priced at RMB 0.380/W. The price of M10 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.46/W, while that of G12 mono TOPCon cell is RMB 0.49/W.

On the supply side, the production of P-type cells has hit a standstill in January and February, showing no signs of resuming operations. Leading manufacturers are persisting with the strategy of halting production and accumulating inventory. Once the supply and demand dynamics turn favorable, there is an anticipation of a rise in cell prices. Simultaneously, some cell manufacturers are hastening the upgrade of P-type production capacity to prolong the life cycle of a portion of production capacity and minimize losses due to depreciation.

Regarding N-type cells, their shipment is lackluster. Despite some manufacturers expressing a willingness to enhance their prices, the downstream demand is slow, and consequently, prices remain low, resulting in a lack of large-scale orders. It's important to note that N-type cell prices in recent tender projects are under pressure and experiencing a decline. In the future, module manufacturers will pass on the price pressure to the upper segment, making N-type cell prices weaker.

On the demand side, the installed demand in the Indian market is robust. India exhibits strong demand for P-type cells, thereby boosting the overall demand for such cells. In February, the output of P-type cells is expected to decrease further, potentially altering the supply and demand dynamics sooner. It remains likely that some customers are poised to stockpile inventory, driving the P-type cell prices to rebound.

Module:

Module prices have remained stable throughout the week. The mainstream concluded price for 182mm facial mono PERC module is RMB 0.93/W, 210mm facial mono PERC module is priced at RMB 0.95/W, 182mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.94/W, and 210mm bifacial glass PERC module at RMB 0.97/W.

On the supply side, leading manufacturers are displaying clear indications of scaling back their production, each with distinct plans for reduction. It is anticipated that module manufacturing capacity will dip to approximately 30-33GW, maintaining its downward trajectory.

Turning to the demand side, domestic module demand continues to lag, with installations primarily driven by ground-based setups and the commercial and industrial sectors this year. Caution is advised regarding the timing of their installation uptick. In the overseas market, the demand in the Indian market acts as a catalyst for global demand, while both the European and U.S. markets are working through their existing inventory. However, considering the shipping disruptions caused by the Red Sea Crisis, the European market is expected to deplete its inventory at a faster rate. The early second quarter typically marks the peak period of installations in Europe, and with considerations for shipping and inventory, orders in the European market may turn positive. The transition period from Q1 to Q2 is expected to be a critical juncture for the PV industrial chain’s recovery from the bottom.

 
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