Polysilicon quotations remained stable on the weaker end this week, where the price increment from partial orders had led to a minor inflation in the average price. Most long-term orders of mainstream businesses have been locked on for November, with concluded prices predominantly identical to that of last week. In terms of prices, the overall supply of the polysilicon market is slightly confined due to the Dual Control Policy and the overhaul plans of several businesses, and a small portion of orders are exhibiting an incremental tendency in quotations. Mainstream market prices are primarily centralized at RMB 268-277/KG from a shrunken price interval, which however is not accepted by the downstream sector, and market bargaining has become evident.
An observation on the production, operation, and shipment status of the domestic polysilicon sector indicates that among the 12 operating businesses, 3 of the 5 businesses that previously initiated overhaul are currently resuming production, while new capacity at the end of this year will contribute to the annual production volume by a lesser degree. The production volume of the domestic polysilicon market is expected to fall below anticipation, with the overall volume of the fourth quarter remaining constant to that of third quarter, where the release of new capacity from the wafer market at the end of the year will provide a sturdy support for the high prices of polysilicon within the short term.
Wafer quotations had slightly loosened this week, while the overall prices remained stable. As the downstream cell market sits on a low operating rate, the demand for mono-Si wafers is now diminishing, with the average prices of G1 and M6 wafers currently maintained at RMB 5.53/pc and RMB 6.87/pc respectively. In terms of multi-Si wafers, the capacity from the wafer supply end continues to tighten, while the quotations have sustained a larger degree of impact from the changes in polysilicon prices, though a dependence on the acceptance of downstream demand persists. Domestic and overseas quotations for multi-Si wafers have now arrived at RMB 2.4/pc and US$0.329/pc respectively.
The incessant rising quotations of upstream polysilicon recently continues to suppress the end sector in terms of profitability, where partial businesses are experiencing amplifying pressure in cash flow. End businesses have decelerated the installation pace of projects under continuously depleting profitability in end projects and unimpeded bargaining, while the module market has also simultaneously lowered the demand for cell purchases as the end sector remains reluctant in accepting module prices. The wafer sector, having received the relevant pressure, has reduced in shipment volume, and is exhibiting a constrained status in both upstream and downstream sectors. A few number of wafer businesses have slightly compromised on concluded prices in order to facilitate order conclusion for November, while the persisting static surrounding increased prices from partial businesses has yet to yield any actual transactions.
The overall concluded prices of cells were comparatively stable amidst shambolic quotations this week. From the demand end, the downstream sector remains unwilling in accepting module prices, followed by a low operating rate from the module end, which induces a wait-and-see attitude towards cell procurement that magnifies pressure in operating and shipment for the cell market. The mono-Si cell quotations from partial first-tier businesses remain stabilized, though second and third-tier businesses, who possess a large extent of flexibility, are adopting different approaches when negotiating for various products. G1 cell is sitting on a robust mainstream price of RMB 1.16/W due to the gradual upgrades and transformation of market capacity and the certain extent of void, while large-sized cells of M6 and above are fluctuating at roughly RMB 0.02/W owing to the negotiation room. Multi-Si cells are currently at a mainstream price of RMB 0.9/W due to the steady high quotations of upstream wafers, as well as the relatively sluggish downstream demand.
Module prices had maintained stable this week on the weaker end, with module quotations being comparatively robust in the distributed market. Module shipment has been marginally difficult, where partial businesses are seriously contemplating in fulfilling orders by giving up on profits, though a reduction in prices is proven to be straining under no apparent fluctuations in upstream quotations. In addition, downstream businesses have been successively releasing new products, including modules and frames, recently, in order to enhance the comprehensive life cycle of PV products that will improve efficiency and reduce costs, which may provide a guidance for low carbon and energy consumption products in the subsequent market. M6 module is currently sitting firmly at RMB 2.05/W, while large-sized M10 and G12 modules are now RMB 2.05-2.15/W in quotations. A segment of the order demand from the current module market comes from distributed PV, which has a stronger approach and a higher degree of flexibility in quotations, with possibly a minor inflation. The market remains ambiguous in future orientation as partial ground power station projects and the residential market prepare to wrap up at the end of the year, where the module market needs to conduct further bargaining with the upstream and auxiliary markets of the supply chain.
There were no apparent fluctuations in glass quotations this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses are now at RMB 27-31/㎡ and roughly RMB 20-23/㎡ respectively. The decelerated purchase pace from the end sector right now has obstructed glass shipment, and a number of businesses are experiencing a steadily diminishing space in negotiation, followed by slightly risen bottom quotations. Low price resources have now become scarce.
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