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Photovoltaic Industry Price Trend: G1 Resources Experience Relatively Tight Supply Prior to Year End as Polysilicon Prices Suspend in Reduction and Stabilize
2020-12-16   |  Editor:faye  |  194 Numbers

Polysilicon

The quotations for polysilicon have gradually stabilized this week, with slight increases in partial quotations. As downstream wafer businesses are starting to exhibit hoarding of mono polysilicon, the majority of polysilicon businesses have completed all orders for December, and a number of sporadic quotations have suspended in reduction, which actuated the mainstream quotations for mono polysilicon to arrive at RMB 80-84/kg this week, with the average price maintained at RMB 82/kg. In terms of multi polysilicon, the overall market quotations are currently in a buffer period of declination, and the suspended prices have propelled the mainstream quotations for multi polysilicon to linger at RMB 51-55/kg, with an average price of RMB 53/kg.

An observation on the production and operation plans of various polysilicon businesses indicates that the 1 among 11 operating polysilicon businesses is expected to gradually resume operation in late December, and the monthly production volume of domestic polysilicon is expected to approach 38K tons as the overall supply of polysilicon continues to elevate. On the whole, the imminent arrival of the stocking period prior to Chinese New Year has stimulated the short-term demand for polysilicon, where the conclusion of partial sporadic and urgent orders have provided momentum for the average prices of polysilicon to rise again. On the other hand, the gradual release of downstream wafer production capacity has further impelled the overall demand for polysilicon, and with no additional projects and production of polysilicon in the first half of 2021, the excess demand will persist in the polysilicon market, which provides support in price stabilization for polysilicon right now.

Wafers

The overall quotations for wafers are stabilized this week, where the supply and demand of mono-Si and multi-Si wafers are relatively sturdy. Most first-tier businesses in the wafer market are currently in the presentation phase, with a relatively low volume of concluded transactions in wafers. Amongst all segmented products, the supply of G1 wafer resources remain constrained this week, where the domestic and overseas average prices are maintained at RMB 3.13/pc and US$0.42/pc respectively, and the tight supply in G1 is expected to last until the end of the year.

Under the spur of downstream demand, most mono-Si wafer businesses have shifted to the production of M6 in the fourth quarter, which stabilized the supply of M6 wafers, for which the domestic and overseas average prices dwell at RMB 3.23/pc and US$0.435/pc. The prices of large-scale products remain robust, of which the average prices for M10 and G12 wafers are sitting at RMB 3.88/pc and RMB 5.48/pc respectively.

As for multi-Si wafer, the production end of the particular product category and multi-Si cells have transitioned the relevant production capacity to mono-Si products, and a comparatively balanced supply and demand has been observed. In addition, the quotations for multi-Si wafers have stabilized in lower prices this week due to the insignificant degree of profit from the product, where the domestic average price is now at RMB 1.43/pc, and the overseas price is maintained at roughly US$0.194/pc.

Cells

The cell market has slightly recovered this week, where the quotations for both G1 and M6 mono-Si cells have risen. Judging by the overall market, the procurement of various cell products in the supply chain is stabilized, and is no longer affected by the installation rush at year end. Owing to vigorous demand, the obtainment of low-prices resources has become severely difficult under the continuously tight supply of mono-Si G1 resources. A number of G1 sporadic quotations have risen by approximately RMB 0.02/W, and the overall average price of G1 cells has been upward adjusted to RMB 0.84/W, with the overseas average price being US$0.114/W. Mono-Si M6 cells are similar to that of last week’s status, where most businesses are optimistic towards the demand in the first quarter of 2021, with the majority of demand prior to Chinese New Year showing willingness in early arrangement. The average price of M6 has slightly increased to RMB 0.93/W, with the overseas price maintained sturdily at US$0.124/W. The supply and quotations for large-scale M10 and G12 cells remain stable at a respective average price of RMB 0.96/W and RMB 0.97/W.

Regarding the market of multi-Si cells, the end demand has yet to be manifested in an extensive degree, and the upstream production capacity for multi-Si cells is gradually diminishing, where the quotations for multi-Si cells from operating first-tier businesses are remaining constant. The price of multi-Si cells remains robust at RMB 0.52-0.58/W, whereas the domestic and overseas average prices are now at RMB 0.54/W and US$0.073/W respectively.

Modules

The prices of modules are generally stabilized as the end of the year approaches, and the module market is focused on presentation. The overall quotations for modules have become steadfast this week, where a large portion of first-tier businesses are currently in the order delivering phase, with fewer new orders, thus the mainstream quotations have yet to sustain apparent adjustments. The average price of the 325-335W/395-405W mono-Si module is sitting firmly at RMB 1.57/W and US$0.212/W, and the quotation for the 355-365/425-435W mono-Si module is maintained at RMB 1.67/W and US$0.226/W. A number of businesses have commented that with the progressive increase in the cost of modules actuated by the rise in auxiliary material quotations, the willingness in increasing module quotations has relatively ascended in overseas, where the domestic spot quotations are temporarily stabilized. Large-scale modules remain robust in quotations, of which the 182 module is quoted at RMB 1.66-1.78/W, with an average price of RMB 1.72/pc, whereas the 210 module is quoted at RMB 1.66-1.78/W, with an average price of RMB 1.72/pc. Looking at the installation status for this year, the distributed market exhibits tenacity under the impact from the pandemic, and the household photovoltaic installation from the domestic market has exceeded 10GW in 2020 so far, which has significant surpassed the initial planning during the start of the year. Distributed markets in Germany, Poland, and Brazil continue to grow vigorously. The distributed market remains promising under the continuous optimization as well as the promotion and application of large-scale modules on the cost of projects.

The market photovoltaic glass is on a steady trend this week, where the 3.2mm glass sits at RMB 44-50/㎡, and the 2.0mm glass sits at roughly RMB 32-36/㎡. As the national policy recently alleviated on the restrictions imposed on the expansion of photovoltaic roll glass, the tight supply of photovoltaic glass will be gradually resolved, and the overall prices of glass in 2021 are expected to be more rational than that of second half of 2020, where glass is considered as having no values. On the other hand, the severe shortage of glass has yet to be resolved despite the termination in the incessant rising trend recently, and the market status of glass is expected to slightly recover after the conclusion of the subsequent wave of installation.

 
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