Many bidding projects supports the installation demand, and the industrial and commercial projects reserve data is strong.
At the beginning of 2024, the installed capacity and bidding data of energy storage have continued to increase at a high rate. The domestic energy storage grid-connected scale from January to February 24 was 2.91GW/7.74GWh, a year-on-year of +116%/181% comparing with CNESA caliber data. As a forward-looking indicator of installed capacity data, the bidding scale has reached 24.17GW/75.11GWh from 23Q4 to 24Q1, which can give a strong support for the domestic energy storage installed capacity in 2024. According to the EESA, the installed capacity of China's user-side energy storage in 2023 was 1.89GW/4.77GWh, a year-on-year increase of 626.9%/412.9%. From the perspective of forward-looking indicators, the scale of 23H2 to 24M2 user-side filings has reached 12.81GWh. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the national energy storage capacity plan has exceeded 80GW, and the energy storage installation planning target of many cities are still continuing to be increase, which will promote the continuous growth of the domestic energy storage market.
The cost of pv projects connecting with energy storage has declined, and the economy and demand have increased.
Since the second half of 2022, the price of the pv and energy storage industry chain has fallen sharply, and the economics and demand of pv connecting with energy storage have increased significantly. We have calculated that after the price of the photovoltaic and energy storage industry chain drops, more regions (low feed-in tariffs) and more projects (projects with higher requirements for distribution and storage ratio and duration) can be allowed to access the market, bringing a significant increase in pv projects connecting with energy storage. In addition, if the red line of consumption is relaxed, it will boost the growth of new energy installed capacity and drive the increase in the scale of distribution and storage. We have conducted a static sensitivity calculation of the installed capacity, with a reduction of 1% of the consumption rate corresponding to about 5GW of new installed capacity, and a reduction of utilization rate from 98% to 90%, corresponding to about 40GW of installed space.
The number of market-oriented grid-connected projects has increased, and the energy storage coefficient has increased.
The power grid sets the scale of guaranteed grid-connected projects with reference to its own regulation capacity every year, and the projects that exceed them enter the market-oriented grid-connected projects, which have higher requirements and are more sensitive than wind and solar installations. At present, more and more market-oriented new energy projects are developing in the direction of high proportion (15%~30%) and high duration (4h). At the same time, since the second half of 23 years, the wind and solar competition in Hebei, Hubei, Gansu and other places has included the energy storage configuration into the important assessment criteria. With the increase of market-oriented grid-connected energy storage projects, the scale of distribution and storage is expected to further increase with the distribution and storage coefficient of wind and solar, bringing new distribution and storage increments.
Policies have been intensively introduced to broaden the profit path of energy storage.
According to the energy storage and electricity market, more than 100 energy storage electricity market policies were issued in nearly 30 regions in 2023. Specifically, many cities have opened the medium and long-term power market for energy storage, and more than 10 regions have included energy storage in the electricity spot market. In addition, many cities have issued policy rules for energy storage to participate in the ancillary service market, and Hunan and Gansu have opened capacity markets for energy storage. In the early stage, the development of energy storage profitability has not been straightened out, so policies are an important means to promote the improvement of energy storage profit models. Policies around the intensive introduction of energy storage market process to speed up.
