The PV glass industry is approaching a critical turning point in terms of profitability, and the diminishing marginal utility of supply is contributing to price stability and the room for higher price. Tightening supply has stimulated demand, providing room for price increases as the market stabilizes. On the supply side, recent statistics from SCI99 indicate that the current domestic production capacity of photovoltaic glass stands at 88,930 tons per day. However, the new production capacity has significantly decreased compared to the same period last year. This decline can be attributed to the industry’s diminished profitability, resulting in reduced willingness among enterprises to invest in production.
In May of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice aimed at improving the risk management of rolled PV glass production capacity. As a result, provinces such as Gansu, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan, Chongqing, and Zhejiang have provided processing measures and warning mechanisms concerning photovoltaic glass production lines, including requirements for capacity replacement and risk warnings.
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we anticipate that industry supply will continue to be impacted by these policies, leading to further declines. By the end of the year, it is expected that PV glass production capacity will reach 100,000 tons per day, with an effective capacity of 80,000 tons. This level of capacity should be able to meet the annual installed capacity target of 550GW. On the demand side, the domestic PV installed capacity from January to May of this year reached 61.21GW, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 158%. With the stabilization of polysilicon prices, the rate of module scheduling is expected to accelerate. According to the forecast by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the global PV installed capacity is projected to reach 350GW in 2023. If the monthly demand exceeds 45 to 50GW, there is a likelihood that PV glass supply will fall short in the short term, leading to a slight increase in prices.
