The Electricity System Operator (ESO) of Bulgaria has drafted a plan to add 5.9GW of generation capacity by 2031. Of that amount, 4.9GW will be based on renewable sources of energy. This story was first reported by local news outlets and other renewable energy news websites in late March.

According to the draft plan, the country’s gross electricity consumption will not surpass 43.3GWh by 2031. Also by that same year, the country’s entire transmission network will have a maximum daily load of 7.7GW. These estimations have been made with the data and analyses provided by the European Commission, the Sustainable Energy Development Agency, the Bulgarian Academy of Science, and Bulgaria’s Ministry of Finance.

ESO’s document also reveals that the share of hydropower in the country’s energy mix will come to a “maximum” of 30% in 2031. Hydropower is a major energy source for Bulgaria, but the construction of new hydroelectric dams not only has been opposed by local communities but also has the potential of violating EU directives. Moreover, ESO’s document points out that Bulgaria exports electricity in the summer months, though the amount depends on the performances of its hydroelectric dams. The country cannot export electricity in the winter months, and the document further notes that energy imports may be required in the next 10 years.

Another option for a significant expansion in generation capacity is nuclear power. ESO’s document mentions new nuclear power plants could be built in the 2030-2040 period. However, no new nuclear power plant will be connected to the grid before 2032 even if its construction begins this year.

Wind Power and Solar PV May Become Alternatives to Coal and Hydropower

Bulgaria’s Association for Production, Storage and Trading of Electricity (APSTE) released a statement in December 2021 that said the country could add 4,650MW of solar PV and 2,350MW of onshore wind power by 2030, thereby increasing the share of renewables in the country’s energy mix to 58%. This statement was later picked up by other renewable energy news websites. IRENA also released a report in June 2021 that said Bulgaria could save as much as USD 700 million if it replaces 3.4GW of its coal-fired generation with renewables.

Renewable energy news websites have reported that the Bulgarian government has recently allocated EUR 30 million for installing PV systems on the roofs of public hospitals. Additionally, German renewable energy developer Wpd plans to set up two wind farms with a total capacity of 96MW near the country’s Black Sea coasts.

In the aspect of policies, the Renewable and Alternative Energy Sources and Biofuels Act passed by the Bulgarian government in 2007 led to the creation of a feed-in tariff scheme and introduced incentives for the development of renewable energy projects. In 2020, the Bulgarian released a renewable energy blueprint that called for adding 2.646GW by 2030. The latest draft plan by ESO presents a much more ambitious installation target.