Sustainable clean energy became a major topic in recent years amidst the accelerated progress of global decarbonization, where the PV market is also welcoming an increasing level of popularity. Trade conflicts, Russia-Ukraine war, energy shortages, production reduction and overhauls, as well as regional power restrictions, are inducing fluctuations within the PV market during 2022, where the robust market demand from areas such as China, Europe, India, and the US may exceed 240GW in total end demand throughout the year. What are some of the challenges and opportunities that the global PV market will encounter in 2023?
1. Major Trends of Global PV Market in 2023 under Carbon Neutrality
Various regions in the world continue to issue PV-favorable policies under the carbon neutrality background, and these policies are ramping up demand within the industry, where China, Europe, India, and the US are primary markets of increment.
Multiple areas released a series of inventive solutions after China proposed its confirmed target of dual carbon. The country, in the midst of rapid development for its PV market, is expected to see a large increase of new installations during 2023. The Inflation Reduction At of 2022 was also recently approved by the US, which once again favors PV development. Russia-Ukraine war, coupling with extreme weather, are severely exacerbating Europe’s energy crisis, which only further establishes its transformation of energy.
Aside from the surge of demand that is driven by policies, the global PV market is also exhibiting the following tendencies on the whole:
- Focus of industry continues to shift to China
- Growth in new installations
- Continuous expansion in production scale
- Declining PV tariffs
- Robust development in distributed PV
- Accelerated in technical iterations within the industry
The first half of 2022 saw 30.88GW of new installations, of which distributed PV accounted for 19.65GW at 64%. Primarily applied on the rooftops of residential, industrial, and commercial buildings, distributed PV is advantageous in small investment, fast construction, diversified forms, and small land occupancy, and serves as an essential method in attaining the dual carbon target. As seen from the distributed full-scenario solutions released by Growatt, we can see that tailored PV system solutions can fulfill the requirements of different users in accordance with buildings and scenarios. Distributed PV will become a key factor for the increment of the PV market during 2023.
Judging by the industry chain, current polysilicon prices are already at the peak, with restricted space for further increment. As new polysilicon capacity successively releases in 2023, prices of the product will return to a reasonable interval, where the reallocation of profitability for each segment of the industry chain will stimulate an explosive growth in domestic demand.
2. New Cell and Module Technology Blossoms under Technical Iterations
The PV industry is currently undergoing an important transition phase, where each segment of the industry constantly upgrades in technology, and “cost reduction & efficiency elevation” has become the core focus of each business, with technical upgrades serving as a crucial propulsion. What technology will become the next mainstream in the future? Which technology possesses better economic efficiency and endures market verifications? These variables will impact the supply prospect of each segment of the entire industry chain.
PV cells and modules are indispensable carriers of PV power generation. Looking at cell technology, each technical iteration constantly elevates the conversion rate of photoelectric effect and lowers cost of businesses, which is referred to as cost reduction and efficiency elevation. New cell technology carries the sacred responsibility of cost reduction, efficiency elevation, and parity for the PV industry, while technology and products of the industry chain are also continuously eliminating the outdated.
The last several years were regarded as the phase for rapid expansion for P-type cells. As PERC cells approach the ceiling pertaining to efficiency, N-type cells guided by the three major technology roadmaps, including HJT, TOPcon, and IBC, are likely to become mainstream in the future. Compared to P-type cells, N-type cells are high in conversion efficiency and low in module deterioration. Many businesses are deploying in high-efficiency N-type technology one after another, which optimizes the overall layout of the N-type industry’s upstream and downstream sectors.
HJT and TOPCon have arrived at 24.5-24.7% in conversion efficiency for mass production during 2022, with constant increases still going on right now. 2022 is regarded as the initiating year for TOPCon, where Trina Solar (8GW) and JA Solar (6.3GW) are going to lead the development of the N-type technology by having scheduled to finalize their TOPCon mass production lines in 2022.
In terms of HJT, relevant businesses are actively implementing corresponding deployment in technical reserves, as well as obtaining data verifications from downstream clients. HJT will accelerate in penetration amidst maturity of localized equipment and improvement in economics of production. Risen Energy is expected to achieve more than 15GW of capacity expansion in 2023, and has been the business with the highest HJT shipment for several consecutive years. Apart from Risen Energy, businesses such as HuaSun, LONGi, and Tongwei have also announced their plans for HJT capacity, and will be accelerating the progress of cost reduction and efficiency elevation subsequently.
Regarding modules, high efficiency and low cost are the targets pursued by many businesses, and the focus of the industry is now transitioning to modules with larger wafers and higher efficiency. Judging by the current status, Trina Solar’s 600W+ modules have exceeded the initial expectation, and are now providing comprehensive solutions for distributed PV applications and scenarios through continuous innovation and upgrades in module technology. As a new player in the module segment, Tongwei is now maturing in shingled modules, which became a prominent advantage for the business when entering the module realm.
The PV industry is seeing unprecedented development opportunities under the global energy transformation and the COVID-19 pandemic. EnergyTrend of TrendForce, in order to better probe into development trends of the PV market and facilitate industrial exchanges, is hosting the online seminar “Global PV Market Trends” on September 27th 2022 (Tue) at 14:30, where multiple PV representatives, industrial leaders, and senior analysts are invited to share with their insights and knowledge on the focuses of the global PV market, as well as explore development trends of the industry together.
The seminar will be centered on the analyses and discussions of multiple areas, including global PV policies, market activities, industry chain prices, and development trends of PV technology. Industrial leaders, at the same time, would organize tendencies pertaining to the development of the global PV market, and offer forward-thinking strategic plans and cogitations for businesses of the industry chain. We look forward to seeing you all at the seminar. Simultaneous interpretation for seminar is also available for overseas clients.