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Power Restrictions Prolonged; Module Prices Temporarily Deprived of Space for Reduction with Imminent Arrival of Installation and Stocking Rush in Q4
2022-08-25   |  Editor:et_editor  |  199 Numbers

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continued to marginally rise this week, where mono-Si compound feedings and mono-Si dense materials were respectively concluded at RMB 306/kg and RMB 303/kg. August orders were essentially fully signed earlier this month, with sporadic and urgent orders carrying on in ramping up prices this week. In addition, the power restriction in Sichuan is now extended to August 25th. As the polysilicon market has aggravated in scarcity, and that it is expected to take up two weeks of time to recover from the suspended production, the corresponding impact is likely to persist, which prompted the negotiation of September orders starting from next, where a continuous increase in prices is expected to be seen.

An observation on the production and operation of the polysilicon segment this week indicates that there are still four polysilicon businesses under overhaul, with three of them concluding at the end of the month. Due to Sichuan’s power restriction and Xinjiang’s pandemic development, the domestic production of multi polysilicon is expected to drop 8% compared to the initial expectation. In the face of the obstinately polysilicon prices right now, MIIT, SAMR, and the General Administration of NEA announced that forcing up prices are severely prohibited within the PV industry in order to promote coordinated development of the PV industry chain.

Wafers

This week’s wafer prices were leveled to that of last week, where M10 and G12 were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of RMB 7.53/pc and RMB 9.93/pc. A number of businesses have successively lowered their operating rate after the implementation of the power restriction policy, and the overall supply and demand of the market is currently relatively balanced. However, the provision differs among products of various sizes. As a segment of first-tier businesses completes their gradual release of expanded capacity and upgrade procedures, the market ratio of M10 has elevated significantly, while M6 capacity continues to decline and diminish. Wafers may follow up with the inflation trend, if polysilicon prices continue to rise next week.

Cells

Cell prices were overall stabilized this week, where mono-Si M6, M10, and G12 cells were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 1.27/W, RMB 1.29/W, and RMB 1.27/W. Most cell production lines in Sichuan are under overhaul under the persistent high heat and the prolonged power restriction implementation, and the corresponding impact has exceeded anticipation. Overall market supply is exhibiting slight restrictions, and the addition of low cell inventory has prompted several cell businesses to bring up their quotations by a small margin, though the end results would still have to depend on the acceptance of module makers. The bargaining between cell and module segments continues, and cell prices may maintain the current robustness amidst the negotiation for September that is scheduled to commence next week.

Modules

Module prices were study this week, where mono-Si 166mm modules were concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 1.91/W, while mono-Si single-sided 182 and 210mm modules were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of approximately RMB 1.97/W and RMB 1.99/W, where bifacial double-glass mono-Si PERC modules of 182mm and 210mm were respectively concluded at RMB 1.97/W and RMB 1.99/W.

This week saw fewer new module orders, and had focused on delivering previous orders. First-tier module makers have been relatively stable in shipment, while second and third-tier module makers are obtaining fewer orders. Projects of domestic large ground power stations are likely to initiate soon. European markets are about to conclude in their summer holidays, and installation demand will persist in Q4. The bargaining between end project providers and module makers is amplifying in intensity as we are drawing close to the installation and stocking rush for Q4. Tongwei was awarded with CR Power’s 3GW module tender with a price that is lower than the current mainstream market price level, though the lower capacity for the short term is not expected to yield any significant impact to the overall domestic module tender prices. In addition, module prices are temporarily out of space for reduction under the tight supply and high prices of various upstream segments.

In terms of auxiliary materials, glass quotations were stabilized this week, where 3.2mm and 2.0mm glasses were respectively concluded at a mainstream price of roughly RMB 27.5/㎡ and RMB 21.15/㎡. September orders are being successively negotiated as the end of the month approaches, though the module end is mainly enquiring orders under a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Market status is expected to gradually clear up next week.

 
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