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Photovoltaic Industry Price Trend: Polysilicon Market Bargaining Persists as Large-Scale Modules Increase in Prices
2020-11-11   |  Editor:faye  |  133 Numbers

Polysilicon

The polysilicon market this week continues the decelerated depleting trend from October, where the domestic and overseas multi polysilicon prices continue to drop. According to the existing transaction status of the polysilicon market, there have been a few concluded orders of significant scale lately, and most businesses have been relatively cautious when signing for orders during early October amidst the declining trend of overall polysilicon prices. Looking at the prices of the orders that have been successively concluded, the quantity of orders with high price levels is gradually diminishing, and the price of mono polysilicon is generally below RMB 90/kg this week, which actuates the mainstream quotation of the product to lower to RMB 87-92/kg, with an average price of RMB 88/kg. The demand for multi polysilicon remains relatively sluggish, and the mainstream quotation has been reduced alongside the decline of the mono polysilicon market to roughly RMB 55-61/kg, with the average price now sits at RMB 58/kg. The overall closing price of polysilicon has slightly depleted due to bargaining, and the global polysilicon price has been adjusted to US$11.05/W.

Despite the continuous bargaining between the upstream and downstream sectors, the supply volume of polysilicon from Sichuan and Xinjiang amongst 11 domestic polysilicon businesses has ascended compared to October, among which the released volume subsequent to production resumption for the 4 businesses of Yongxiang, GCL, Xinte Energy, and East Hope has accounted for the majority of the supply, equaling an approximate MoM increase of 2500 tons. In addition, a total of 3 domestic businesses remain on the overhaul phase for their production lines, and a new polysilicon business in Inner Mongolia has entered overhaul, thus the monthly production volume is bound to sustain a certain degree of impact. In general, the domestic production volume of polysilicon can be expected to remain on the rising slope compared to October, and a deteriorating perspective brews in the overall polysilicon market as the upstream and downstream sectors persist in bargaining, and partial polysilicon businesses are starting to panic due to the accumulated inventory.

Wafers

The quotations of wafers have sustained a minor fluctuation this week, where the prices of multi-Si wafers continue to weaken. The existing market quotations for mono-Si wafers are relatively belligerent, and a number of first-tier businesses have fulfilled the orders for November, with no intention in adjusting the quotations temporarily. As of this week, the domestic quotations for mono-Si wafers from domestic leading businesses have been stabilized for three consecutive months, and have resulted in the unchanged prices for mono-Si wafers, where the domestic average prices for G1 and M6 remain at RMB 3.05/pc and RMB 3.2/pc respectively, whereas the overseas quotations for G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers have arrived at US$0.4/pc and US$0.42/pc respectively.

The stagnant demand from the domestic and overseas markets recently has brought turmoil to the multi-Si wafer market, where the majority of small and medium businesses have successively suspended on production capacity, though such approach has yet to stabilize the prices, as the panicking and pessimistic attitude towards the market has resulted in partial truncated prices directly impacting the mainstream quotations, and transactions of high price levels become gradually difficult for first-tier businesses. As prices are forced to loosen, the prices of weak-and-semi-strong efficiency products continue to deplete, where the domestic and overseas prices for the multi-Si wafers this week have been downward adjusted to RMB 1.35-1.55/pc and US$0.185-0.21/pc respectively, and the average prices have been weakened to RMB 1.45/pc and US$0.195/pc respectively.

Cells

The overall quotations of cells remain essentially constant this week, where the material shortage from the downstream sector has induced decelerated cell shipment for partial businesses. As the G1 mono-Si cell experiences progressively weakened market shares, the relevant prices continue to loosen, thus leading to impeded order issuances of cells on the whole. There have been businesses that have commented regarding suspended purchases from partial module clients, and that the shortage in upstream and downstream auxiliary materials has created difficulties in production, thus the average price of G1 cell is maintained at RMB 0.83/W. On the other hand, the excess demand for large-scale mono-Si cells has prompted integrated businesses to elevate the self-use ratio of cells in order to alleviate the pressure coming from the downstream sector, where a small number of urgent orders have escalated in quotations, which propelled the overall prices of large-scale cells to remain sturdy at RMB 0.92/W and US$0.12/W for the domestic and overseas average prices.

The recent fluctuations in the pandemic status for overseas have obstructed the installation progress of projects, thus introducing uncertainties to the demand for multi-Si cells. The domestic production capacity for multi-Si cells has been diminishing perpetually, with relatively more discarded market resources and chaotic prices. Despite the anchored quotations from first-tier businesses, the fewer concluded transactions this week has resulted in the overall prices of multi-Si cells being constant to that of last week, with domestic and overseas average prices sitting at RMB 0.55/W and US$0.073/W.

Modules

The module prices have slightly increased this week, where large-scale module products have seen a rise in prices. As the cost of auxiliary materials surge continuously, a number of first-tier businesses have attempted to increase their quotations, which can be primarily seen on mono-Si M6 and above modules, and boosted the average price of the 355-365 / 425-435W mono-Si PERC module to RMB 1.67/W that resulted in sporadic orders for transactions, though the overall acceptance remains insignificant as the downstream sector is adhering to a stronger wait-and-see attitude. Furthermore, some module makers have commented that modules are deemed as no values in the existing market, and there are no available goods for delivery even if the end sector is willing to make exorbitant purchases as module delivery has been hindered due to the shortage of auxiliary materials.

On the contrary, the shortage of auxiliary materials has actuated the continuous ascension of glass quotations, where a number of sporadic orders for the 3.2mm glass can be concluded at RMB 50/㎡, and a mainstream concluded price of RMB 43-45/㎡. The orders of glass have not manifested signs of diminishment despite the constant static from upstream module makers pertaining to the excessive pressure in module cost, and the price of 3.2mm glass has been upward adjusted to RMB 43-50/㎡ this week, whereas the 2.0mm glass has also been inflated to roughly RMB 30-36/㎡. On the other hand, the photovoltaic industry has proposed the alleviation on the restriction of production expansion for photovoltaic glass. The policy surrounding the replacement of the production capacity for photovoltaic glass has been mitigated, though it has yet to affect the overall tight supply of photovoltaic glass, and the provision of the photovoltaic market is expected to improve gradually as leading photovoltaic glass businesses successively initiate production between the end of this year to early 2021.

The advancement progress has been differentiated for various overseas photovoltaic markets under the normalized pandemic status. European and US markets continue to impel demand, and partially controlled projects under the pandemic have been decelerated in establishment progress. The growth of the Indian market remains lower than the anticipation even under the support from the policy, and the market policies of Brazil and Chile have been sluggish in implementation, though the market end remains fiery. On the other hand, the continuous elevation in the cost of domestic module production, as well as the incessant weakening of US dollars, and the escalation in the cost of sea transportation, have introduced a certain degree of impact to the profits of overseas module shipment, which simultaneously propelled the quotations of modules in a marginal scale. The quotation of the 275-280 / 330-335W multi-Si module sits at US$0.174-0.28/W, and the average price has been risen to US$0.181/W, whereas the quotation for the 355-365 / 425-435W mono-Si PERC module has arrived at US$0.217-0.355/W, with the average price risen to US$0.224/W.

 

 
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