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Photovoltaic Industry Price Trend: Expanded Wiggle Room in Prices for Second and Third-Tier Businesses from Minor Price Fallback for Polysilicon and Modules
2020-09-23   |  Editor:faye  |  230 Numbers

Polysilicon

The loosened quotations caused by the small amount of new orders in the polysilicon market this week have propelled a small reduction in both mono and multi polysilicon. As the National Day of the PRC approaches, polysilicon businesses are starting to implement procurements successively according to various demand, and among the new orders that are currently in negotiation, the quotations from first-tier polysilicon businesses are generally stable, whereas the quotations from second and third-tier polysilicon businesses are preserving a certain degree of bargaining room. The insignificant number of completed orders in high price polysilicon previously has resulted in accumulated inventory for partial second and third-tier polysilicon businesses, and the simultaneous impact from the price suppression of downstream sectors as well as the minor decrease of new order prices, have actuated the mainstream quotation for mono polysilicon to drop to RMB 95-103/kg, with an average price of RMB 99/kg. The mainstream quotation for multi polysilicon is at roughly RMB 65-71/kg, and the average price has been reduced to RMB 68/kg, whereas the global average price for polysilicon has been lowered to US$12.091/kg.

Looking at the overall supply and demand of the polysilicon market, the supply volume of the market is recovering gradually, and the minor overhaul implemented by sporadic number of businesses among the 11 local polysilicon businesses has created insignificant impact to the production capacity. The void of polysilicon provision is centralized on 3 first-tier businesses, among which the two businesses in Xinjiang have yet to reach to full load, and the single business in Sichuan has yet to resume production, with the rest of the businesses operating at full load. Under the undersupply status of the overall polysilicon market in September, wafer businesses had less actual orders in the face of a polysilicon price that remains at about RMB 100/kg, and a number of businesses have reduced the operating rate and suppressed on prices, thus the bargaining between upstream and downstream sectors continues. As downstream first-tier businesses stock up successively for the National Day Holiday and the subsequent market, the polysilicon market is expected to witness improvement in prices by the end of the month.

Wafer

The overall wafer market remains stable this week, where the wiggle room for partial businesses in new orders has been expanded. The prices of mono-Si wafers remain robust, where the price of G1 wafer remains at RMB 2.95-3.1/pc, and the price of M6 wafer remains at RMB 3.1-3.25/pc, whereas the difference between the average prices of G1 and M6 is maintained at RMB 0.2/pc. Continuing from the trend of last week, the mainstream quotation for multi-Si wafers sits at RMB 1.52-1.65/pc, and the overall quotation remains stable from the ordinary market demand.

Most first-tier businesses are currently in the presentation phase, and remain generally stable in new requests for quotation. However, small and medium-sized businesses, under the impact from the loosened downstream quotations, have clearly indicated the possibility in negotiation despite the stabilize quotations when asked for new requests, with the fluctuation of wafer quotations remained predominantly at RMB 0.02-0.03/pc.

Cells

The overall quotations of cells are currently stable, with merely a small amount of orders seeing price fluctuations. G1 and M6 quotations remain robust this week, where the price interval for G1 cell remains at RMB 0.85-0.9/W, and the price of G1 bifacial cell has been stabilized at RMB 0.85-0.93/W. The production capacity of M6 in the overall market right now is evidently smaller than that of G1, and the gradual transition to M6 cells from downstream demand has provided a certain level of subsequent support for M6 cells. Pertaining to multi-Si cells, the restricted space in reduction, along with the few businesses that possess a strong purchase willingness, have led to a generally stable quotation, apart from the signs of loosening in the orders from a small batch of second and third-tier businesses. The quotation remains stable at RMB 0.53-0.6/W this week.

An observation on the current status in order signing for cell businesses in general has revealed that the reduction in cell quotations from two weeks ago has failed to elevate the transaction volume of the market. Existing first-tier businesses with pricing power are no longer lowering prices, and the downstream market is adhering to a wait-and-see attitude, thus the bargaining will persist in the cell market within the short term, and the actual transaction status may gradually alleviate starting from next week.

Modules

The overall module prices have slightly decreased this week, with differentiation seen in the quotations from first and second-tier module businesses. Subsequent to the bargaining between the module sector and end purchasers, the bid prices for a number of projects have been marginally escalated compared to before, and the overall module quotations no longer ascend, where the price of the 325-335/395-405W mono-Si PERC module has been lowered to RMB 1.54-1.62/W, and the 355-365/425-435W mono-Si PERC that is experiencing relatively well demand has been reduced to RMB 1.58-1.7/W, with the difference between the average prices of the two products being enlarged to RMB 0.04/W. On the other hand, the suspension and postponement in partial local end projects persists, and the urgent demand in modules recently has been focused on the >410W products, which are required to ship in batches between September and October, thus leading to an overall stable quotation for most of the existing first-tier businesses. On the contrary, the quotations from second and third-tier module businesses have experienced a fallback tendency due to factors such as inventory and scale, and the closing price for partial mono-Si modules is at RMB 1.55-1.58/W.

The overall weak demand for multi-Si modules is merely invigorated by the demand from local directional tenders and the weak-and-semi-strong efficiency market, and the fluctuation in the exchange rate has prompted the domestic and overseas pries of the 275-280w/330-335W multi-Si module to drop to RMB 1.3-1.38/W and US$0.18-0.31/W.

 
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