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Global Trend: G1 Cell Prices Accelerate in Reduction; Price Differentiation from Suspended Module Inflation
2020-09-09   |  Editor:faye  |  139 Numbers

Polysilicon

The overall inflation in the polysilicon market has been suspended this week, with minor fluctuations seen in the quotations of partial businesses. The mono polysilicon is currently at RMB 95-105/kg, with an average price maintained at RMB 101/kg, whereas the mainstream quotation for multi polysilicon is at RMB 65-72/kg. Looking at the structure of domestic polysilicon provision from the past 3 quarters, the domestic production volume of polysilicon in between July and August had sustained a YoY reduction, and had set a consecutively low record in annual production. The void exhibited in the supply end has resulted in constant consumption of polysilicon inventory for various businesses, leading to an aggravated status of material shortage within the short term. The polysilicon market has remained on a high price level, though the intensity in price suppression from wafer businesses has been apparent, and there have been insignificant transactions at roughly RMB 100/kg.

The propulsion from the work resumption at various polysilicon manufacturers in Xinjiang since the beginning of September has slightly mitigated the pressure from the excess demand market status. Although the prices for mono and multi polysilicon remain at a high level this week, the supply volume from domestic businesses is expected to recover to more than 30K tons per month that is on par with the domestic production volume of the same period last year, as the capacity utilization in Xinjiang elevates, which prompts a progressive increase in the supply of polysilicon. Hence, the polysilicon market is exhibiting a clear sign in price stabilization thanks to the growth in polysilicon supply, and the low willingness in the purchase volume of polysilicon recently.

Wafer

The prices of wafers remain stable this week, and the overall market pressure has been relatively mitigated. Subsequent to the continuous bargaining between the wafer sector and up/downstream that lasted from late August to early September, the orders for the wafer market have been signed successively this week, where both the domestic and overseas wafer prices remain stable. Pertaining to mono-Si wafers, the transactions in first-tier businesses are relatively more unimpeded, whereas the closing prices for second and third-tier businesses are dependent on the order status, with larger interval exhibited in the overall closing price, where G1 mono-Si wafer sits at RMB 2.95-3.1/pc, and an average price of RMB 3/pc. The constant downstream demand for M6 mono-Si wafers and larger product sizes has resulted in the average domestic and overseas prices for M6 mono-Si wafers to remain at RMB 3.2/pc and US$0.404/pc, which preserves a certain degree of bargaining power for subsequent large-scale wafers.

The overall quotation for multi-Si wafers sits firmly on RMB 1.52-1.65 this week under the impact from the gradually stabilized upstream prices, and the previous increase in the cost of raw materials for multi-Si wafer has prevented the price advantage in the specific product from substantially escalating the downstream demand. Multi-Si wafer businesses are currently attempting to obtain more market shares through low prices, whereas the purchase demand from the downstream sector is gradually shifting to the mid-to-low end efficiency segment, which actuates the closing price for the low price resources of partial multi-Si wafers to fall on RMB 1.32-1.37/pc.

Cells

Prices continue to loosen in the cell market this week, where the price of G1 mono-Si cell has once again depleted. Under the impact from the general inflation of cell prices previously, downstream businesses had reduced cell purchases in the midst of price bargaining, and leading integrated businesses have successively elevated the self-use ratio of cell products, which leads to the apparent pressure in the existing price reduction of cells, and the price differentiation in mono-Si cells. G1 cell in particular has sustained simultaneous decline in domestic and overseas quotations, with the price interval adjusted to RMB 0.85-0.91/W and US$0.13-0.138, due to the impact from excessive production capacity and high prices, as well as the overall weakened bargaining power of businesses, whereas second and third-tier businesses have experienced a more evident reduction in general, with the quotation mustered at RMB 0.85-0.87/pc. On the other hand, the continuous elevation in downstream demand for large-scale (≥166mm) products has preserved a certain extent for the overall price difference between G1 and M6 cells, which has accelerated the inventory accumulation and the declining price trend of G1 cells.

Downstream module makers’ demand for multi-Si cells is on an ascending slope, which propels the prices of multi-Si cells to maintain steadily at RMB 0.53-0.6/W, and it is expected that the quotations for multi-Si cells may remain sturdy due to the higher price-performance ratio of the product.

Modules

The overall inflation in the module market has been suspended this week, though the prices from various businesses are relatively hectic. The primary products in the current market of 325-335W/395-405W mono-Si PERC module remains at RMB 1.55-1.66/W, and the 355-365W /425-435 W mono-Si PERC module sits at RMB 1.55-1.72/W. Looking at the quotation status for various businesses, the price difference between first and second-tier modules has become evident, where the overall quotation remains constant from the centralized orders from first-tier businesses, and a number of businesses have decelerated on the installation progress in order to benefit partial end projects, for which the diminished new orders have resulted in several first-tier businesses in reducing the amount of outsourcing so as to maintain the existing operating rate. As for partial second and third-tier businesses that possess weaker bargaining power, the quotation for modules has started to loosen, and has even fallen to below RMB 1.5/W for some 325-335W modules.

In addition, as the end demand continues to pull and release, several projects remain unchanged in terms of the anticipation on grid-connection at the end of the year, and multiple end projects have restarted tenders to advance construction period, which impels an elevation in the shipment volume of partial N-type and film products. Furthermore, the glass materials required by the downstream sector have been consecutively increasing in prices recently, thus impeding the overall module status from exiting the market status of August, and the pressure for the supply from the module market persists.

Note: The adjustments on the specifications of cells and module will begin this week due to the changes in the market demand.

 
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