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Global Trend: Material Shortage May Alleviate in September as Inflation Gradually Stabilizes in Supply Chain
2020-08-27   |  Editor:et_editor  |  210 Numbers

Polysilicon

The prices of polysilicon continue to elevate this week, and have once again climbed to new heights as we approach the end of the month, where the price of mono polysilicon has been adjusted upward to RMB 92-102/kg, with an average price of RMB 100/kg, whereas the average price of multi polysilicon has exceeded RMB 70/kg, with the price range reaching RMB 65-72/kg. The primary factor for the price increase remains identical to that of last several weeks, where a number of polysilicon businesses have suspended on production that led to an excess demand in the provision of polysilicon, though the inflation in the polysilicon market is expected to gradually diminish after this week.

The polysilicon businesses in Xinjiang are steadily resuming production, and the progressive recovery in supply will gradually alleviate on the shortage. Simultaneously, the acceptance in the continuous severe inflation of polysilicon for downstream businesses is on a downward slope, and these various factors have resulted in the moderate contraction for the price increase of the polysilicon market amidst the inflating trend. Certain Xinjiang polysilicon manufacturers have also pointed out that the traffic control from the logistics end has affected the timeliness of freight, which induced an increase in the transportation cost, though the supply of polysilicon has been steadily recovered, and the material shortage may be further alleviated in September.

Wafers

The transaction prices in the wafer market are stabilizing this week. First-tier wafer manufacturers had adjusted the quotations for September at the end of the month, which is merely implemented to reflect the increased exchange rate in accordance with the overseas prices, and the overall domestic quotations remain unchanged. The domestic prices of G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers remain at RMB 2.95-3.1/pc and RMB 3.1-3.25/pc respectively, and the average price is maintained at RMB 0.2/pc.

As the end of the month is near, most businesses have begun negotiating for the orders next month, though the substantial fluctuation in the market due to the continuous increase in domestic wafer prices, along with the insufficient purchase intensity from downstream sectors, have manifested an apparent trend in suppressed cell prices, and the strong sentiment in the wait-and-see attitude persists in the market.

Cells

The cell prices experienced a slight turmoil this week, which is particularly seen on mono-si cells. The suppression on cells is most severe due to the incessant inflation of upstream wafers, and the inability of inflation from downstream modules. Regarding mono-Si cells, the G1 mono-Si cell has arrived at the same price as G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers, with the average price reaching RMB 0.930/W. As the end of the month approaches, manufacturers have begun negotiating for the orders of September, and a number of module makers have commented on how the purchase price of cells are significantly lower than the quotations, where a price squeeze is especially severe from second and third-tier manufacturers. In contrast, the elevation in the cost of modules has prompted the market to begin shifting the focus to multi-Si cells, which provided a stable support in the demand for the specific product.

Modules

Module prices are predominantly stabilized this week. The constantly elevated prices that lasted several weeks in the overall industry chain cannot be transferred to downstream modules, and the main reason is that project purchasers from the downstream end market are unwilling to proceed with transactions, who would rather suspend on projects and delay grid construction, than purchase modules with higher prices. A number of module makers have decided to reduce production instead of fishing in troubled waters in order to maintain a friendly relationship with system integrators. The continuous seesaw battle in the market has resulted in the overall prices of the >325W/>385W modules being maintained at RMB 1.53-1.65/W, and an average price of RMB 1.56/W.

Pertaining to the overseas markets, although the prices are being maintained at US$0.202-0.325/W due to the bottleneck from the domestic supply chain, the differentiated status of the COVID-19 pandemic is noticeable. Unlike the US and Brazil, where the pressure is marginally alleviated, India has continued to experience elevation in diagnosed cases. Countries such as Spain, Japan, and Korea, likewise, are seeing a bounce back in diagnosed cases. This has led to an expansion in restrictive measures for partial countries, which may induce fluctuations in the photovoltaic market in the short term.

(Image:pixabay)

 
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