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Global Trend: Differentiated Domestic and Overseas Market Status Sustained by Modules Under Continuous Inflation of Polysilicon Prices
2020-08-20   |  Editor:et_editor  |  203 Numbers


The prices of polysilicon continue to elevate this week due to unstableness. Looking at the current severe shortage in the supply of polysilicon, there are 4 manufacturers in Xinjiang, the primary area for polysilicon provision, that are currently in the midst of overhaul subsequent to the work incident at the Xinjiang factory of GCL, which affected half of the polysilicon output in the area. On the other hand, the suspended operation from polysilicon factories in Sichuan due to the flooding has further exacerbated the existing polysilicon shortage and the tight supply status, and propelled the polysilicon prices to continue to rise this week, where the market price for mono polysilicon has been adjusted upward to RMB 90-98/kg, and the average global polysilicon price has exceeded US$11/kg, which has arrived at the same level of 2018.


A continuously ascending slope can be seen from the prices of the wafer market this week. The incessant increase in upstream polysilicon prices continues to elevate the cost of wafer, where the relentless protests on the market, and that most downstream cell manufacturers are unable to sustain the ceaseless price increase from upstream due to insufficient demand by the downstream end market, have not prevented wafer businesses from increasing the prices simultaneously, who also commented that the quotations for wafer will rise alongside the perpetually inflated polysilicon prices. The price for multi-Si wafer has been elevated to RMB 1.52-1.65/pc, and the price difference between G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers continues to expand, with upward adjustments in the average price to RMB 3/pc and RMB 3.2/pc respectively.


The cell prices in the market experienced a mere fluctuation this week, and the main market is currently sitting on a bargaining phase. Upstream wafers are continuously rising in prices, with a majority of successful transactions; in contrast, despite the willingness in price increase from cell manufacturers, the transactions of cells have been arduous primarily due to the strong sentiment in the wait-and-see attitude from the downstream market, which results in the drastic depletion in purchase willingness for the downstream market, leading to uncompleted transactions. In addition, most orders from the market are derived from first-tier businesses that possess a certain degree of negotiation capability, and that most businesses sign for the orders for the specific month during the beginning of the month, thus there have been relatively less completed orders in the market this week, where the price difference between G1 and M6 mono-Si wafers remains at RMB 0.05/W.

The price of multi-Si cell is maintained at RMB 0.55/W this week, where the overseas price had been adjusted downward to US$0.084-0.089/W. According to the feedback from partial manufacturers, the price-performance ratio of multi-Si products is exhibiting a substantial surge with the persistent inflation of mono-Si products, which contributed to the recovery in the demand for multi-Si cells within the domestic market, though the intensity from the end demand will not be sufficient enough to support large-scale production capacity in the long run.


The quotations for modules have been slightly cluttered this week due to the more apparent differentiation in domestic and overseas market status. Under the incessant inflation of upstream cost, the module sector continues to sustain the price pressure from elevated cost of raw materials, and the overseas market has a higher acceptance for inflated module prices than the domestic market. Looking at the recent status on grid-connection for the overseas markets, the installation progress has been satisfactory in the markets of Germany, Poland, and Brazil, despite the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, and the recovery in the markets around the world may carry on invigorating photovoltaic demand.

For the domestic market, a number of downstream projects have entered the delivery period, though the contradiction between supply and demand persists in the market. The end demand in the current phase has gradually lowered the purchase intensity, and most system integrators are unpleased with the suspended shipment from module makers under signed contracts, as well as the fishing in troubled waters behavior, resulting in a stalemate for the market status. The prices from the module market have slightly increased, where the >325W/>385W modules have arrived at RMB 1.53-1.65/W.