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Price Trend: Cells Still Under Pressure, Hope for a Lift in Market Sentiment
2019-07-25   |  Editor:et_editor  |  67 Numbers

The overall market is still in the off-season and has not improved this week. Both of the domestic and overseas prices of the upstream polysilicon show adjustments and changes. The wafer market is still polarized. The price of the cells continues to drop. It is estimated that there might be changes after August. The module manufacturers are not doing as bad as the cells. However, it may be a make-or-break time for the weaker manufacturers. In the upcoming weeks, if the mood of the market could be reversed by the end of Q3, it would be almost acceptable for the overall PV supply chain. Otherwise, the industry would not shake off the slump easily. The recession would expand both in terms of time and scale, which is not good for the overall market.

Polysilicon

The polysilicon market is still slow and stagnant this week. Other than the fact that the off-season affects business opportunities, the routine maintenance also slightly affects the supply, but not to such an extent that it would change the price. It is estimated that the effects of maintenance would be reflected on the supply around late Q3. There is a possibility that market demand and supply might be out of sync again. There is also a shortage of supply in overseas markets. Although it does not so much cause a fluctuation in the price, it is inevitable that the market will adjust slightly. The range of the overseas price revision is 9.50~10.00USD/KG at the moment. The average price is lowered to 9.66USD/KG, while the global average price is lowered to 9.33USD/KG. The range of the domestic multi polysilicon price is revised to 59~62RMB/KG. The average price is lowered to 60RMB/KG, while the mono polysilicon has remained at 74~78RMB/KG.

Si-wafers

This week the mono-Si wafers stay stable, while the poly-Si wafers continue to decline. In order to maintain liquidity, some multi-Si wafer manufacturers are willing to reduce their price so much, that it is close to their cash cost. They even went as far as attracting the customers by the price reduction of the August orders. The market of the mono-Si wafers, on the other hand, remain balanced. Although the price of the downstream cells continue to fall, the two major wafer manufacturers remain stable. In the overseas market, the price of the 156.75mm mono-Si wafers has risen to 0.417USD/Pc. The 158.75mm mono-Si wafers has remained at 0.445USD/Pc. The mono-Si wafers with size 161.75mm and above has remained at 0.460USD/Pc.

The range of the multi-Si wafers price revision is 0.238~0.239USD/Pc. The black silicon products are revised down to 0.267USD/Pc. In the domestic market, the mono-Si wafers has remained at 3.05~3.13RMB/Pc. The large-size products has remained at 3.35RMB/Pc. The multi-Si wafers has remained at 1.85~1.87RMB/Pc.

The cast-mono wafers are lowered to 1.90RMB/Pc. The black silicon products are lowered to 2.08RMB/Pc.

Cells

The high level of inventory still leads to the continuous decline in the cell market this week. There is not as much change as expected in terms of the proportion of the manufacturers suspending their production. They keep up the production due to the costs incurred in interrupting and restarting the production lines. The inventory from this wave of production may take 1~ 2 months to digest by estimation. On the multi-Si cell front, the market has not been much affected. Its capacity is not as abundant, therefore its pull on the market price is limited. In the overseas market, the price of the general multi-Si cells has remained at 0.113~0.127USD/W. The average price is revised down to 0.116USD/W. The range of the general mono-Si cell price revision is 0.115~0.140USD/W. The average price has remained at 0.120. USD/W. The range of the high-efficiency mono-Si cell price revision is 0.150~0.170USD/W. The average price is revised down to 0.160USD/W. The range of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si cell (>21.5%) price revision is 0.150~0.190USD/W. The average price is revised down to 0.174USD/W. In the domestic market, the range of the general multi-Si cell price remains unchanged at 0.81~0.84RMB/W. The price of the high-efficiency multi-Si cells is revised down to 0.86RMB/W. The price of the general mono-Si cells has remained at 0.82~0.85RMB/W. The range of the high-efficiency mono-Si cell price revision is 0.98~1.05RMB/W. The average price is lowered to 1.02RMB/W. The range of the superior high-efficiency mono-Si cell (>21.5%) price revision is 1.05~1.12RMB/W. The average price is lowered to 1.09RMB/W. The price of the bifacial high-efficiency mono-Si cells is revised down to 1.10RMB/W. The price of the bifacial superior high-efficiency mono-Si cell (>21.5%) has been revised down to 1.18RMB/W.

Module

This week, the module market continues to maintain stability. A wait-and-watch sentiment is taking hold of the markets. The orders of large manufacturers still continue to deliver their products reliably. For small and medium-sized factories with fewer orders, they have to survive on whatever they can get. In the overseas market, the general multi-Si (270-275W) price has remained at 0.205~0.250USD/W. The high-efficiency multi-Si (280-285W) price has remained at 0.218~0.235USD/W. The general mono-Si (290-295W) price has remained at 0.235~0.251USD/W. The high-efficiency mono-Si (300-305W) price has remained at 0.268~0.335USD/W. The superior-high efficiency mono-Si (>310W) price has remained at 0.253~0.395USD/W. In the domestic market, the general multi-Si (270W~275W) price has remained at 1.68~1.75RMB/W. The high-efficiency multi-Si (280W~285W) price has remained at 1.80~1.85RMB/W. The general mono-Si (290W~295W) price has remained at 1.83~1.90RMB/W. The high-efficiency mono-Si (300-305W) price has remained at 1.90~2.08RMB/W. The superior-high efficiency mono-Si (>310W) price has remained at 1.95~2.15RMB/W.

 
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